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Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a remarkable success. The title was: « Underway to recovery or Underestimating the Fundamentals? ». The Forum has been well attended by over 400 shipping professionals – from the Greek and International shipping community - covering all spectrums of the industry.
The panel consisted of the following distinguished personalities: Mr. Nicolas A. Tsavliris, Chairman of ICS Greek Branch and Tsavliris Salvage Group, H.E. Mrs. Jenny Bloomfield, Ambassador of Australia in Greece, Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman & CEO at Paragon Shipping Inc., Mr. James Leak, Managing Director at Arrow Research Ltd., Mrs. Stavroula Betsakou, Head of Tanker Research at ICAP Shipping Ltd., Mr. Ted Petropoulos, Managing Director at Petrofin Research S.A., Mr. Anthony Argyropoulos, Managing Director at Seaborne Capital Advisors Ltd. Panel Moderator of the forum was Mr. Vasileios Chakos, FICS, V. Chakos Claims Adjusters Co.
Natalia Margioli - Komninou, Managing Director of the ICS Greek Branch and Hellenic Management Centre, after thanking the speakers and the audience, remarked that ICS, 100 years now, promotes the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, while the ICS Membership is a mark of competence for shipping professionals worldwide. She proudly mentioned that more and more companies trust HMC, which represents ICS in Greece, for the professional development of their human resource, under the statement that qualified individuals are better placed to make better decisions.
Mrs. Margioli - Komninou queried whether we are truly underway to recovery or we are just underestimating the fundamentals driving the supply and demand in shipping. On the one hand, she said, there are those who believe that the monumental changes occurring in the global economy will positively affect shipping. Facts supported by the mini-spike on new orders placed by owners, due to the significant improvement seen at freight markets and asset values over the last year. On the other hand, she mentioned that there are those who do not see a recovery in 2014 or even early 2015. She referred to the worse scenario, as predicted by Martin Stopford that the fleet and shipbuilding overcapacity and the orders put in place are driven by shortsighted and speculative motives rather than by a sustainable trade demand. Mrs. Margioli - Komninou concluded her reference to the topic with the statement that ‘’shipping accounts for 95% of the global trade and is here to stay’’.
The Chairman of the ICS Greek Branch, Nicolas Tsavliris referred to the current turbulent times that Greece faces, which unavoidably have affected the Greek Shipping Business. He expressed that international level shipping markets seem to have improved, though there are some that believe the opposite. Three factors are affecting the international shipping: the effect of regulatory pressure on lenders, the new sources of financing, i.e. private equities and hedge funds, the escalation of the bizarre phenomenon of insolvent banks lending money to insolvent shipowners to buy ships at inflated prices – or to build ships at insolvent shipyards. He concluded his speech by the words of President John F. Kennedy: “An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.”
H.E. Jenny Bloomfield, the Australian Ambassador in Greece, underlined Greece’s dominant role in international shipping and highlighted the synergies between Greece’s shipping industry and Australia’s export-driven economy. Mentioning the significant amount of Australia’s exports, particularly to emerging Asian markets that are transported by Greek-owned ships, Ambassador Bloomfield remarked on the considerable shared interest both countries have in maintaining an efficient, safe and environmentally responsible global shipping industry. Australia’s current chairmanship of the G20, which coincides with Greece’s EU presidency, gives both countries an opportunity to engage at high levels to secure an industry that is vital to the global economy.
Michael Bodouroglou stated that although cyclicality exists in all business sectors, when it comes to shipping its consequences are far more intense. The cycle is obviously driven by the prevailing supply-demand balance. Oversupply creates recession and this can be caused by either weak demand or too many orders. The recent recession has occurred despite healthy demand simply because of too many newbuilding orders. The Chairman of Paragon Shipping added that the current state of affairs of the industry is described by a reduced order book, somewhat improved chartering market, asset values at or very near historical lows and an expected healthy demand for the foreseeable future. Lastly he stated that despite increased private equity investments into the sector, funding in general remains problematic due to lack of liquidity and reduced Bank lending. This is probably comforting as it reduces the possibility of a new over ordering wave big enough to destroy the market.
Stavroula Betsakou discussed the crude and product tanker markets. Starting by identifying the factors that led the crude tanker market at the bottom the first 9 months of 2013 and to the VLCC rally in November, expressing that that neither the bottom nor the highs seen this year are sustainable for 2014. China and India will continue to drive demand growth with the marginal barrel of supply moving westward due to unconventional production in the Atlantic basin, increasing tonne-miles. Low fleet growth may allow for a solid recovery, however, competition with the Suezmaxes and fluctuations in the fleet speed will place ceiling on freight rates, possibly below the required rates of the fleet ordered from 2004 to 2008.
Expectations for the product sector are balancing between the heavy deliveries of eco-ships for a second year and the increasing trade and triangulation opportunities. Investment interest is strong as financing, sourced from financial markets and private equity. The effects of the rising markets will filter through and cause the market to reach its next peak at significant lower levels than 2008. Owners are encouraged to stay focused on quality and to exploit short-term asset cycles.
‘’We are on the brink of a dry bulk renaissance" is what James Leake, the new MD of Arrow Research, would have us believe. He argues that the era of punishing fleet growth is behind us, and now we have compelling trade growth stories in the key dry commodities representing a shift in the fundamentals. Some doubt that the current rally is anything more than the kind of seasonal uptick experienced over the last few years. In his presentation at this year's event, James will no doubt attempt to convince the doubters, with supporting evidence spanning all the major bulk commodities and likely fleet developments. The expansion of the iron ore trade is central to his view, with Capesize leading the way as the major beneficiary in this up cycle. With delivery dates for new orders now slipping into 2016, further newbuilding investment risks missing the boat.
According to the latest Petrofin Research, Ted Petropoulos stressed the fact that Greeks remain totally committed to shipping. Interest in acquiring more vessels is accelerating, as is shown by this year's second hand vessel purchases and newbuilding orders. As Greek banks, financing Greek shipping, have been in a merging and acquisition turmoil, ship finance has been affected downwards, stated Mr. Petropoulos. He added that the two international largest banks financing Greek shipping, the Royal Bank of Scotland and HSH Nordbank, have been addressing their own difficulties, and this has also affected Greek ship finance. Hence, the divergence between the rise in Global ship finance and the downward trend of Greek ship finance. He concluded with a reference to every other financial and private capital source that is being exploited with increasingly more reliance on own resources to acquire second hand vessels and newbuildings. However, the majority of newbuilding orders remain largely speculative in having no arranged finance in place.
Anthony Argyropoulos approached the topic by describing the relation of shipping and US Capital Markets. He stated that tighter lending by commercial banks has led to shipping companies to seek for alternative sources of financing in the public markets, while private investors are cautious when it comes to investing in shipping. He referred to the IPO activity which in 2013 increased compared to the previous years, as 5 shipping companies entered the US Capital Markets raising approximately $ 951.5 millions in gross proceeds. Lastly, on the basis of the title Mr. Argyropoulos stated that dry bulk shipping market experiences a small recovery- especially in Capesize- due to Australian and Brazilian iron ore exports, outpacing the dry bulk shipyard activity. But he queried, will it be sustainable? Though, a positive sign is that analysts predict a 4% fleet growth in 2014, compared to the 10% – 16% experiencing between 2010 – 2012.
This year’s proceedings closed on a celebrating note with the award commendation of the candidates that participated at the ICS Examinations in April 2013. The panel Moderator, Mr. Vasileios Chakos, mentioned that in 2013 more than 500 shipping executives attended the ICS Professional Training Courses, while the Greek Branch come secondly in terms of examination participation only to London.
The candidates distinguished internationally were: Ioannis Theodorou - Niovis Shipping, Loukia Tranou - Oceanwide Shipping, Christian Becker - Thenamaris Shipmanagement, Evi Platsidaki - Norton Rose, Sofia Zoidou, Nikolaos Vasilatos - Vita Management, Konstantinos Katranis, Helen Arabatzi - Aerio Shipmanagement and Panagiotis Kalogerakos - Marmaras Navigation.
Source: Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch / Hellenic Shippingnews
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Wednesday, 25 December 13
SHIPPING : AS FAR AS THIS CYCLE IS CONCERNED, 'WE HAVE SEEN THE WORST....!' - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In a week’s time the year comes to an end. Having been a speaker in two seminars over the past 5 days I was able to see the year ending trends ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS UP 11.46% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 23, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 3.84 ...
Tuesday, 24 December 13
SGX HAS LAUNCHED FREIGHT FUTURES
COALspot.com: Singapore Exchange (SGX) has announced the launch of freight future yesterday.
According to SGX’s press release, SGX has laun ...
Monday, 23 December 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR AVERAGE Q1' 14 CLOSED AT $ 82.80
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 2.97 percept month on month as on Friday 20 December 2013. ...
Sunday, 22 December 13
Q1' 14 DELIVERY COAL SWAPS CLOSING HIGH COMPARED TO Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.31 pmt month on month on Friday 20 December 2013 ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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