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Friday, 13 December 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS HEALTHY DEMAND MOVING FORWARD - ICS
The Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch organised its 9th Annual Forum at Eugenides Foundation, on Wednesday, 11th of December, with a remarkable success. The title was: « Underway to recovery or Underestimating the Fundamentals? ». The Forum has been well attended by over 400 shipping professionals – from the Greek and International shipping community - covering all spectrums of the industry.
The panel consisted of the following distinguished personalities: Mr. Nicolas A. Tsavliris, Chairman of ICS Greek Branch and Tsavliris Salvage Group, H.E. Mrs. Jenny Bloomfield, Ambassador of Australia in Greece, Mr. Michael Bodouroglou, Chairman & CEO at Paragon Shipping Inc., Mr. James Leak, Managing Director at Arrow Research Ltd., Mrs. Stavroula Betsakou, Head of Tanker Research at ICAP Shipping Ltd., Mr. Ted Petropoulos, Managing Director at Petrofin Research S.A., Mr. Anthony Argyropoulos, Managing Director at Seaborne Capital Advisors Ltd. Panel Moderator of the forum was Mr. Vasileios Chakos, FICS, V. Chakos Claims Adjusters Co.
Natalia Margioli - Komninou, Managing Director of the ICS Greek Branch and Hellenic Management Centre, after thanking the speakers and the audience, remarked that ICS, 100 years now, promotes the highest standards of professionalism and ethics, while the ICS Membership is a mark of competence for shipping professionals worldwide. She proudly mentioned that more and more companies trust HMC, which represents ICS in Greece, for the professional development of their human resource, under the statement that qualified individuals are better placed to make better decisions.
Mrs. Margioli - Komninou queried whether we are truly underway to recovery or we are just underestimating the fundamentals driving the supply and demand in shipping. On the one hand, she said, there are those who believe that the monumental changes occurring in the global economy will positively affect shipping. Facts supported by the mini-spike on new orders placed by owners, due to the significant improvement seen at freight markets and asset values over the last year. On the other hand, she mentioned that there are those who do not see a recovery in 2014 or even early 2015. She referred to the worse scenario, as predicted by Martin Stopford that the fleet and shipbuilding overcapacity and the orders put in place are driven by shortsighted and speculative motives rather than by a sustainable trade demand. Mrs. Margioli - Komninou concluded her reference to the topic with the statement that ‘’shipping accounts for 95% of the global trade and is here to stay’’.
The Chairman of the ICS Greek Branch, Nicolas Tsavliris referred to the current turbulent times that Greece faces, which unavoidably have affected the Greek Shipping Business. He expressed that international level shipping markets seem to have improved, though there are some that believe the opposite. Three factors are affecting the international shipping: the effect of regulatory pressure on lenders, the new sources of financing, i.e. private equities and hedge funds, the escalation of the bizarre phenomenon of insolvent banks lending money to insolvent shipowners to buy ships at inflated prices – or to build ships at insolvent shipyards. He concluded his speech by the words of President John F. Kennedy: “An error does not become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.”
H.E. Jenny Bloomfield, the Australian Ambassador in Greece, underlined Greece’s dominant role in international shipping and highlighted the synergies between Greece’s shipping industry and Australia’s export-driven economy. Mentioning the significant amount of Australia’s exports, particularly to emerging Asian markets that are transported by Greek-owned ships, Ambassador Bloomfield remarked on the considerable shared interest both countries have in maintaining an efficient, safe and environmentally responsible global shipping industry. Australia’s current chairmanship of the G20, which coincides with Greece’s EU presidency, gives both countries an opportunity to engage at high levels to secure an industry that is vital to the global economy.
Michael Bodouroglou stated that although cyclicality exists in all business sectors, when it comes to shipping its consequences are far more intense. The cycle is obviously driven by the prevailing supply-demand balance. Oversupply creates recession and this can be caused by either weak demand or too many orders. The recent recession has occurred despite healthy demand simply because of too many newbuilding orders. The Chairman of Paragon Shipping added that the current state of affairs of the industry is described by a reduced order book, somewhat improved chartering market, asset values at or very near historical lows and an expected healthy demand for the foreseeable future. Lastly he stated that despite increased private equity investments into the sector, funding in general remains problematic due to lack of liquidity and reduced Bank lending. This is probably comforting as it reduces the possibility of a new over ordering wave big enough to destroy the market.
Stavroula Betsakou discussed the crude and product tanker markets. Starting by identifying the factors that led the crude tanker market at the bottom the first 9 months of 2013 and to the VLCC rally in November, expressing that that neither the bottom nor the highs seen this year are sustainable for 2014. China and India will continue to drive demand growth with the marginal barrel of supply moving westward due to unconventional production in the Atlantic basin, increasing tonne-miles. Low fleet growth may allow for a solid recovery, however, competition with the Suezmaxes and fluctuations in the fleet speed will place ceiling on freight rates, possibly below the required rates of the fleet ordered from 2004 to 2008.
Expectations for the product sector are balancing between the heavy deliveries of eco-ships for a second year and the increasing trade and triangulation opportunities. Investment interest is strong as financing, sourced from financial markets and private equity. The effects of the rising markets will filter through and cause the market to reach its next peak at significant lower levels than 2008. Owners are encouraged to stay focused on quality and to exploit short-term asset cycles.
‘’We are on the brink of a dry bulk renaissance" is what James Leake, the new MD of Arrow Research, would have us believe. He argues that the era of punishing fleet growth is behind us, and now we have compelling trade growth stories in the key dry commodities representing a shift in the fundamentals. Some doubt that the current rally is anything more than the kind of seasonal uptick experienced over the last few years. In his presentation at this year's event, James will no doubt attempt to convince the doubters, with supporting evidence spanning all the major bulk commodities and likely fleet developments. The expansion of the iron ore trade is central to his view, with Capesize leading the way as the major beneficiary in this up cycle. With delivery dates for new orders now slipping into 2016, further newbuilding investment risks missing the boat.
According to the latest Petrofin Research, Ted Petropoulos stressed the fact that Greeks remain totally committed to shipping. Interest in acquiring more vessels is accelerating, as is shown by this year's second hand vessel purchases and newbuilding orders. As Greek banks, financing Greek shipping, have been in a merging and acquisition turmoil, ship finance has been affected downwards, stated Mr. Petropoulos. He added that the two international largest banks financing Greek shipping, the Royal Bank of Scotland and HSH Nordbank, have been addressing their own difficulties, and this has also affected Greek ship finance. Hence, the divergence between the rise in Global ship finance and the downward trend of Greek ship finance. He concluded with a reference to every other financial and private capital source that is being exploited with increasingly more reliance on own resources to acquire second hand vessels and newbuildings. However, the majority of newbuilding orders remain largely speculative in having no arranged finance in place.
Anthony Argyropoulos approached the topic by describing the relation of shipping and US Capital Markets. He stated that tighter lending by commercial banks has led to shipping companies to seek for alternative sources of financing in the public markets, while private investors are cautious when it comes to investing in shipping. He referred to the IPO activity which in 2013 increased compared to the previous years, as 5 shipping companies entered the US Capital Markets raising approximately $ 951.5 millions in gross proceeds. Lastly, on the basis of the title Mr. Argyropoulos stated that dry bulk shipping market experiences a small recovery- especially in Capesize- due to Australian and Brazilian iron ore exports, outpacing the dry bulk shipyard activity. But he queried, will it be sustainable? Though, a positive sign is that analysts predict a 4% fleet growth in 2014, compared to the 10% – 16% experiencing between 2010 – 2012.
This year’s proceedings closed on a celebrating note with the award commendation of the candidates that participated at the ICS Examinations in April 2013. The panel Moderator, Mr. Vasileios Chakos, mentioned that in 2013 more than 500 shipping executives attended the ICS Professional Training Courses, while the Greek Branch come secondly in terms of examination participation only to London.
The candidates distinguished internationally were: Ioannis Theodorou - Niovis Shipping, Loukia Tranou - Oceanwide Shipping, Christian Becker - Thenamaris Shipmanagement, Evi Platsidaki - Norton Rose, Sofia Zoidou, Nikolaos Vasilatos - Vita Management, Konstantinos Katranis, Helen Arabatzi - Aerio Shipmanagement and Panagiotis Kalogerakos - Marmaras Navigation.
Source: Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers Greek Branch / Hellenic Shippingnews
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Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a cru ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS SOFTENING ON LESS ACTIVITY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic rates have been slowly sliding but ows can still achieve decent money for TArv´s. USG positions still being fixed in re ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
TANKER PROFITABILITY IS THE 'MILLION-DOLLAR' QUESTION FOR SHIP OWNERS THIS YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market conditions are expected to remain challenging throughout the year for tanker owners, but even more pressing will be the issue of a ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
GLOBAL COKING AND STEAM COAL PRODUCTION HAVE GROWN 2% TO 3% TO ABOUT 7.1 BILLION TONNES AS OF THE END OF 2013 - VDKI
COALspot.com (Press Release): Initial figures on the world hard coal market at the VDKi ((Association of Coal Importers - German) New Year’s R ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS JUMP 13.75% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 27 January 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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