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Friday, 08 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET BOUNCES BACK ON RENEWED DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market staged a mild comeback this week, as the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) inched forward step by step and bit by bit throughout the week. Even yesterday, when it retreated, it was rather marginal. The BDI now stands at 1,593 points, down by nine points on the day, but significantly higher than last week's levels. Also, it's worth noting that smaller sizes are faring better, compared to their larger counterparts, with the Supramax market stealing the show. The Baltic Supramax Index was up by 14 points yesterday, versus losses of 21 and 20 points in the Capesize and Panamax respective indexes.

In a report this week from Platts, it was noted that "although Capesize freight rates had trended up late last week and early this week, a decline in the paper market seen Wednesday led some market participants to believe the physical market would quickly follow suit. Some others however said it was too soon to conclude Capesize freight rates would trend down. Some charterers are refraining from finalizing fixtures as physical market trends appeared uncertain. Another Singapore-based charterer termed the recent uptick in Capesize freight rates as a "dead cat bounce" and expected freight rates to fall later Wednesday on the Brazil-Qingdao route as the paper market came under "heavy pressure", the report noted.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys commented on the Capesize market by noting that "steady gains on the physical side coupled with paper volatility. The key West Australia/China route has gained close to USD 1.50 w-o-w. With all miners actively taking ships, time charter equivalent for Pacific routes now push north of USD 17k/day. Fronthaul and T/A rates have also rebounded following last week´s losses, with the conference trade Tubarao/Qingdao up USD 2.50 pmt w-o-w and coming in at USD 22 pmt. Daily average spot earnings stand at USD 20,500, up some 25% during the week. The market does, however, remain nervous, and FFA developments do little to give a clear direction. Consequent limited period activity, with assessed value of good 180k-tonners standing at some USD 17,500 for 12 months", the shipbroker said.

On the Panamax front, it added that "despite some signs of a consolidation mid-week the negative trend from last week continues in both Hemispheres. Baltic rounds fixed at 16,500 and USG grain fronthaul at 53 pmt or 18k + 800k GBB APS. Some signs of increased activity in the Atlantic insufficient to meet the supply and rates hover around 14k generally. With some mixed opinions among the players a few chrtrs have fixed short period within the basin at around 15k+. In Far East volumes have been low in all regular trades with 11,500-12,000 as the prevailing level. However, it is worth to notice the very active Chinese coastal trade with levels up to 20k/day reducing supply. Hardly any movement in the period market as Q4 seems to loose its steam assisted by a gradually falling forward curve", Fearnleys said.

Finally, in the Handy markets, the shipbroker noted that "in the Atlantic we have seen more activity this week with several fixtures being concluded at firm rates. USG/Feast been reported at 30k and from the USEC to Feast high 20´s has been achieved. With holidays in India and chrts having cvrd their prompt cgos for November again leading to a quiet week for the coal rounds in the Pacific. Indo/China rounds are seeing bids at around USD 16k meaning softening rates while the iron ore from EC India are being rated at around USD 11k. Period market is a bit slow but shorter periods are being concluded at reasonable levels".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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