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Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding from their recent peak of USD 42k per day down to today’s levels of USD 28k per day, said Yannis Olziersky, SnP Broker, from Intermodal.
In addition to the strong Capesize market, which found support from the recent Chinese restocking and strong demand for iron ore, chartering activity for the other segments has also improved and is surging on the back of increased shipments of grains from the US Gulf and the Black Sea.
According to Intermodal's weekly report, The dry bulk market, it seems, is witnessing a U-turn in fate; bullishness, although restrained, has return to many market players since to them it appears as if the worst phase is now behind us and the market is expected to advance at a faster pace compared to that of last year. This restrained optimism has had its impact on second hand sales as well as on the new building market, as a significant number of vessels are changing hands at prices well above last done deals and sometimes well above Sellers’ ideas, due to the fact that competition between Buyers, in an effort to secure tonnage, is driving values well above recent levels.
Same story with the new building market, where slots at good shipyards are now scarce and offered prices have surged and are about 10-15pct higher compared to orders that were placed during 1H of 2013.
What will happen next? Are we on a firm recovery track or were the latest positive developments in freight rates based only on a typical seasonal spike? Having foresight in a volatile industry like shipping, which is highly dependent on so many different parameters, is difficult and dangerous to do.
Yannis Olziersky added in his research report that, on the other hand there are some irrefutable facts which cannot be overlooked. Seaborne commodities have increased about 6pct compared to last year; fleet growth increased about 5.8pct (year to date), which is the lowest we have seen during the last couple of years. Taking also into consideration that the world economy is on a recovery phase and that the global GDP is projected to increase at a higher rate compared to previous years it is expected that dry bulk commodities will keep trading at higher volumes compared to 2013.
At the same time it is expected that today’s rates will face a correction once Chinese iron ore inventories are replenished and the strong grain season comes to an end, he commended. There is no doubt that the market does not have the ability to grow at the same pace we experienced the past couple of months since the overcapacity issue is still there and uncertainty over the global economy remains despite better forecasts.
However, what is more important to note is that dry bulk fundamentals are expected to improve and as a result the average earnings for the years ahead look to be better compared to previous ones. Hence, taking a long term perspective and in the event that the global economy will remain firm on its recovery path, the demolition market keeps active and the new building ordering will hold near its current pace (i.e. at a more moderate pace compared with booming years), we see substantial signs to be optimistic and expect to have an overall upside in freight rates over the coming years, Yannis Olziersky concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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