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Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding from their recent peak of USD 42k per day down to today’s levels of USD 28k per day, said Yannis Olziersky, SnP Broker, from Intermodal.
In addition to the strong Capesize market, which found support from the recent Chinese restocking and strong demand for iron ore, chartering activity for the other segments has also improved and is surging on the back of increased shipments of grains from the US Gulf and the Black Sea.
According to Intermodal's weekly report, The dry bulk market, it seems, is witnessing a U-turn in fate; bullishness, although restrained, has return to many market players since to them it appears as if the worst phase is now behind us and the market is expected to advance at a faster pace compared to that of last year. This restrained optimism has had its impact on second hand sales as well as on the new building market, as a significant number of vessels are changing hands at prices well above last done deals and sometimes well above Sellers’ ideas, due to the fact that competition between Buyers, in an effort to secure tonnage, is driving values well above recent levels.
Same story with the new building market, where slots at good shipyards are now scarce and offered prices have surged and are about 10-15pct higher compared to orders that were placed during 1H of 2013.
What will happen next? Are we on a firm recovery track or were the latest positive developments in freight rates based only on a typical seasonal spike? Having foresight in a volatile industry like shipping, which is highly dependent on so many different parameters, is difficult and dangerous to do.
Yannis Olziersky added in his research report that, on the other hand there are some irrefutable facts which cannot be overlooked. Seaborne commodities have increased about 6pct compared to last year; fleet growth increased about 5.8pct (year to date), which is the lowest we have seen during the last couple of years. Taking also into consideration that the world economy is on a recovery phase and that the global GDP is projected to increase at a higher rate compared to previous years it is expected that dry bulk commodities will keep trading at higher volumes compared to 2013.
At the same time it is expected that today’s rates will face a correction once Chinese iron ore inventories are replenished and the strong grain season comes to an end, he commended. There is no doubt that the market does not have the ability to grow at the same pace we experienced the past couple of months since the overcapacity issue is still there and uncertainty over the global economy remains despite better forecasts.
However, what is more important to note is that dry bulk fundamentals are expected to improve and as a result the average earnings for the years ahead look to be better compared to previous ones. Hence, taking a long term perspective and in the event that the global economy will remain firm on its recovery path, the demolition market keeps active and the new building ordering will hold near its current pace (i.e. at a more moderate pace compared with booming years), we see substantial signs to be optimistic and expect to have an overall upside in freight rates over the coming years, Yannis Olziersky concluded.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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