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Friday, 18 October 13
WOOD MACKENZIE FORECASTS CHINA WILL OUTWEIGH THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR BASE METALS DEMAND BY 2017
 China set to account for 52% of 117mt base metals market by 2017
China is on track to exceed rest of the World demand by 2017, becoming the single largest consumer of base metals. According to Wood Mackenzie’s latest base metals demand forecasts, China will account for 52% of base metals demand by 2017, compared with 46% of the 96 million tonnes (Mt) global base metals market in 2013. While China’s lower GDP targets are reflected in lower demand growth for base metals on a percentage basis over the next five years versus the last half decade, the research firm says that China will maintain its dominance and the outlook for Chinese base metals demand is slower not lower.
Helen Matthews, Head of Base Metals Markets research for Wood Mackenzie says; “Our forecasts for the next five years show that across all of the base metals – aluminium, copper, lead, nickel and zinc – growth in demand will come predominately from China. Demand growth has slowed from the double digits we saw from 2008 to 2013 to single digits - ranging from five to eight percent – however, it’s important to note that in absolute tonnage terms we still see significant numbers.”
Wood Mackenzie says that the global base metals market is set to grow from 96Mt in 2013 to 122 Mt in 2018, with a huge shift set to occur in 2017; “Today, the Rest of the World, excluding China, accounts for 54% of the global base metals market however, as we’re seeing with many other commodities, China’s rampant appetite will overtake the rest of the World, growing to 52% of demand in a 117Mt market.”
Wood Mackenzie’s economic analysis points to the drivers behind this growth as Jonathan Butcher, Senior Economist for Wood Mackenzie explains; “While there are a number of factors behind growth in demand for each base metal, a key theme for China is continued urbanisation and rising domestic wealth. Wood Mackenzie’s proprietary China Activity Index tracks a number of factors, and gives us confidence that economic growth will remain strong in the short term. Looking out to 2030, we see a bright future for Chinese commodity demand. Urbanisation rates will reach 70%, compared to just under half of the population in 2013. This will have a widespread impact on the economy over the next 20 years, with electricity consumption per capita forecast to reach the same level as Korea today.”
Matthews adds; “Our analysis shows that the outlook for key demand drivers is positive, with a firm emphasis on Asia.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 11 December 13
THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IS CONSIDERING SETTING A REGULATION ON THE MINIMUM PURITY TO REGULATE UNPROCESSED ORE BAN
COALspot.com: Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Jero Wacik recently proposed to house those mining (mineral) companies that had shown a commitme ...
Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS
Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the B ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
HNL, AN INDIAN STATE-OWNED NEWSPRINT PAPER MAKER SEEKS 50K TONS OF INDONESIAN 5600 COAL
COALspot.com: Hindustan Newsprint limited (HNL), an Indian state owned news print paper producer invited bids to supply 50,000MT of min 5,200kcal/kg ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
COLOMBIAN THERMAL COAL EXPORTS SLIPPED 25.54% M-M IN OCTOBER'13
COALspot.com: Colombia's Thermal coal exports in October dropped 25.54% month on month to 5,990,815.13 million mt, according to data from mining de ...
Tuesday, 10 December 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE W-O-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended December 9, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.50 ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- The University of Queensland
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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