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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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