We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says that import demand will still meet previous high expectations, although overall demand growth will be lower. This is due to lower seaborne coal prices compared to domestic coal prices in coastal China. As such, domestic producers are competing for market share by lowering prices in spite of negative margins. This explains the recent continuous drop in Chinese coal prices. However, Wood Mackenzie says that coastal China coal prices will be supported at *RMB500 per tonne (t) as at this price level 40% of domestic supply operates at negative margins.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed from 9.3% to 7.5% from 2011 to 2013. As a result, power demand growth has slowed in China and coal demand in coastal provinces has remained flat, staying at 2011 levels of 1.2 billion tonnes(Bt). In contrast, seaborne demand increased rapidly - This year, Wood Mackenzie expects China to import 235Mt of thermal and 67Mt of metallurgical coal, up from 168Mt and 31Mt respectively in 2011. This translates to a growth in share of seaborne imports into coastal China from 17% to about 25% between 2011 to 2013.
Wood Mackenzie's Senior Analyst Coal Market Research, Mr. Prakash Sharma says, "The trend of increased coal imports has been aided by weak coal prices in the international market. This means that Chinese coal import demand is almost entirely driven by the competitiveness of imported versus domestic supply. As such, large Chinese miners are adopting volume strategy by producing more to bring down operating costs and pricing lower to maintain market share."
These measures will hold market share in the short-term but may be counter-effective if prices fall too low in coastal China. Therefore we believe prices find a floor at RMB500/t. Small to medium sized domestic players will be most affected due to relatively high fixed labour costs and mine safety expenses in China. Large producers such as Shenhua and China Coal, who have resorted to aggressive pricing, contribute almost 50% of China's domestic coal production. The remainder 50% comes from the small to medium size miners.
Rohan Kendall, Senior Analyst for Coal Supply Research, says, "At RMB 500/t, we estimate that 40% of China's thermal coal production will produce at negative margins. Small to medium sized producers operating at negative margins, particularly those producing low-energy coal, face a real risk of mine closures. The situation may also trigger further consolidation of small loss-making mines in China."
Summarizing, Mr Sharma says, "The 40% of domestic production producing at negative margins equates to about 150% of the size of the current seaborne market. Full replacement volumes cannot feasibly be sourced from imports without creating a price response that will actually incentivise domestic miners to remain in production. Therefore, we believe prices will be supported above RMB 500/t, turning the tide on the current price trend."
*All prices refer to benchmark FOB Qinghuangdao Thermal coal price (5500 kcal/kg NAR basis) inclusive of 17% VAT.
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
Sunday, 18 August 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP : ON POSITIVE DIRECTION ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 1.83 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
|
|
|
Showing 4156 to 4160 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
|
| |
| |
|
