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Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says that import demand will still meet previous high expectations, although overall demand growth will be lower. This is due to lower seaborne coal prices compared to domestic coal prices in coastal China. As such, domestic producers are competing for market share by lowering prices in spite of negative margins. This explains the recent continuous drop in Chinese coal prices. However, Wood Mackenzie says that coastal China coal prices will be supported at *RMB500 per tonne (t) as at this price level 40% of domestic supply operates at negative margins.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed from 9.3% to 7.5% from 2011 to 2013. As a result, power demand growth has slowed in China and coal demand in coastal provinces has remained flat, staying at 2011 levels of 1.2 billion tonnes(Bt). In contrast, seaborne demand increased rapidly - This year, Wood Mackenzie expects China to import 235Mt of thermal and 67Mt of metallurgical coal, up from 168Mt and 31Mt respectively in 2011. This translates to a growth in share of seaborne imports into coastal China from 17% to about 25% between 2011 to 2013.
Wood Mackenzie's Senior Analyst Coal Market Research, Mr. Prakash Sharma says, "The trend of increased coal imports has been aided by weak coal prices in the international market. This means that Chinese coal import demand is almost entirely driven by the competitiveness of imported versus domestic supply. As such, large Chinese miners are adopting volume strategy by producing more to bring down operating costs and pricing lower to maintain market share."
These measures will hold market share in the short-term but may be counter-effective if prices fall too low in coastal China. Therefore we believe prices find a floor at RMB500/t. Small to medium sized domestic players will be most affected due to relatively high fixed labour costs and mine safety expenses in China. Large producers such as Shenhua and China Coal, who have resorted to aggressive pricing, contribute almost 50% of China's domestic coal production. The remainder 50% comes from the small to medium size miners.
Rohan Kendall, Senior Analyst for Coal Supply Research, says, "At RMB 500/t, we estimate that 40% of China's thermal coal production will produce at negative margins. Small to medium sized producers operating at negative margins, particularly those producing low-energy coal, face a real risk of mine closures. The situation may also trigger further consolidation of small loss-making mines in China."
Summarizing, Mr Sharma says, "The 40% of domestic production producing at negative margins equates to about 150% of the size of the current seaborne market. Full replacement volumes cannot feasibly be sourced from imports without creating a price response that will actually incentivise domestic miners to remain in production. Therefore, we believe prices will be supported above RMB 500/t, turning the tide on the current price trend."
*All prices refer to benchmark FOB Qinghuangdao Thermal coal price (5500 kcal/kg NAR basis) inclusive of 17% VAT.
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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