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Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says that import demand will still meet previous high expectations, although overall demand growth will be lower. This is due to lower seaborne coal prices compared to domestic coal prices in coastal China. As such, domestic producers are competing for market share by lowering prices in spite of negative margins. This explains the recent continuous drop in Chinese coal prices. However, Wood Mackenzie says that coastal China coal prices will be supported at *RMB500 per tonne (t) as at this price level 40% of domestic supply operates at negative margins.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed from 9.3% to 7.5% from 2011 to 2013. As a result, power demand growth has slowed in China and coal demand in coastal provinces has remained flat, staying at 2011 levels of 1.2 billion tonnes(Bt). In contrast, seaborne demand increased rapidly - This year, Wood Mackenzie expects China to import 235Mt of thermal and 67Mt of metallurgical coal, up from 168Mt and 31Mt respectively in 2011. This translates to a growth in share of seaborne imports into coastal China from 17% to about 25% between 2011 to 2013.
Wood Mackenzie's Senior Analyst Coal Market Research, Mr. Prakash Sharma says, "The trend of increased coal imports has been aided by weak coal prices in the international market. This means that Chinese coal import demand is almost entirely driven by the competitiveness of imported versus domestic supply. As such, large Chinese miners are adopting volume strategy by producing more to bring down operating costs and pricing lower to maintain market share."
These measures will hold market share in the short-term but may be counter-effective if prices fall too low in coastal China. Therefore we believe prices find a floor at RMB500/t. Small to medium sized domestic players will be most affected due to relatively high fixed labour costs and mine safety expenses in China. Large producers such as Shenhua and China Coal, who have resorted to aggressive pricing, contribute almost 50% of China's domestic coal production. The remainder 50% comes from the small to medium size miners.
Rohan Kendall, Senior Analyst for Coal Supply Research, says, "At RMB 500/t, we estimate that 40% of China's thermal coal production will produce at negative margins. Small to medium sized producers operating at negative margins, particularly those producing low-energy coal, face a real risk of mine closures. The situation may also trigger further consolidation of small loss-making mines in China."
Summarizing, Mr Sharma says, "The 40% of domestic production producing at negative margins equates to about 150% of the size of the current seaborne market. Full replacement volumes cannot feasibly be sourced from imports without creating a price response that will actually incentivise domestic miners to remain in production. Therefore, we believe prices will be supported above RMB 500/t, turning the tide on the current price trend."
*All prices refer to benchmark FOB Qinghuangdao Thermal coal price (5500 kcal/kg NAR basis) inclusive of 17% VAT.
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 01 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET IN FIRST POSITIVE SIGN IN DAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Owners of dry bulk carriers are well aware of the rollercoaster ride that has been the market for their vessels over the past few years. This trend ...
Thursday, 31 October 13
HANDY: ACTIVE; PANAMAX: QUIET; CAPESIZE: NO LIGHT
Handy
The handy market had an active week however not directly translated into the rates we´ve seen in the Pacific. We see more coal and baux ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
INDONESIAN STATE OWNED COAL MINER HAS EXPORTED 7.02 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 9 MONTHS
COALspot.com : PT. Bukit Asam, Indonesian state owned coal miner has sold 13.24 million tons of coal for the period January - September 2013. Accord ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS LOST FURTHER GROUND THIS PAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has lost further ground this past week, as de-creased activity in both basins for both C ...
Wednesday, 30 October 13
CAPESIZE: DOWNWARD; SUPRAS AND HANDIES: STABLE - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has resumed its downward movement, noting another dip for a third week in a row. The larger size segments were responsible for p ...
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Showing 4036 to 4040 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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