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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always been the case in similar occasions. This trend has already been obvious, by tracking the latest couple of sessions of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI was down 43 points yesterday, to end at 2,003 points, still more than double than the level of this past summer. The Capesize market witnessed the widest losses, which again was to be expected, given that most of the Capesize business is coming out of China. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 114 points to 3,853. Marginal losses were again obvious in the Panamax market, while smaller ship classes fared better, with Supramaxes rising by 10 points and Handysizes by three points to 1,079 and 597 respectively.
Capt. Jitesh Jaipuriyar, Chief Operating officer with Emerald Maritime, Dubai, offered Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com) an insight, regarding this latest rally of the dry bulk market, which has been fuelled by factors both "upstream" and "downstream". In the upstream factors, Capt. Jaipuriyar, noted that "miners are not able to sell at higher costs as there are few “takers”. India and China, as one of the most prospective import economies, are unable to support high raw material prices due to currency devaluation and slow growth combined. However, a miner may not be able to feed supply at the same cost for long as it threatens the very survival. Thus, the importer is forced to pay for high raw material prices which eventually is directly correlated to BDI upswing and supports the rally", he stated.
Regarding downstream factors, Capt. said that "in the current scenario, any increase in prices of raw materials, shall force miners to pass on the rises to the end users, in order to maintain profit margins, especially if this trend continues for an extended period. For shipping to recover, then this period has to be extended. Does it mean that it would bring “Inflationary pressure” in emerging economies? Not necessary. This is because when pressure builds up on downstream, other “balancing factors” shall come into play" he says.
According to Capt. Jaipuriyar, at this stage "the following question arises, if the high raw materials cost shall be able to create a “derived demand” or not. What we see as of now may not be real derived demand but more of a “Pseudo Demand”. Pseudo demand emerges from the constraint of choices a company has when having contracted out spot rates. This will show increased demand through paying more for shipping of the materials. However, the fact remains that companies have to commit to long term contracts (LTCs) and soaring period rates would not allow them to contract ships at lesser Time-Charter equivalents. But LTCs can play ‘Wait and watch’ game. This again contributes to pool of “pseudo demand” to be capitalized later and would support the rally", he says.
BULLWHIP EFFECT & “DECOUPLING”
"Last month, A Capesize stem from Australia to China, cost USD 14 per MT whereas same when slit in two panamaxes, costs only USD 13 per MT. This is against the economy of scale. So, how does it happen? When the demand goes up, a producer goes for bigger volumes and Capes rate go high. Due to limited Capes, the demand for smaller sizes down the chain increases which in effect creates a ‘Bullwhip effect’ to drive the demand for ships and rallies BDI overall.
So, at some point of time, the economic principles “decouple” with existing demand and supply scenario and lead to speculations. This in turn brings in volatility in the market. But the end demand drives it in sustainable way in spite of creation of multiple peaks and troughs on the way.
ROAD AHEAD
There have been many attempts to forecast BDIs in past and will continued to be explored. However, interestingly, it appears that the accuracy of forecasts lies not in “correlation” but possible “negative correlations”. It is for the fact that a positive correlation is not mere a result of one factor but a combination of many. Under such circumstances, it may not be possible to substantiate a proper or perfect “weightage” to one factor or another. But, past shows that gold, CRB (Commodity research bureau index) and crude prices often indicate how the negative correlation is building up and may help forecast BDI for short runs, possibly.
Overall, market remains upbeat for positive growth as stockpiles of grains and coal and other major commodities remain high to be shipped across the geographies", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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