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Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of market fundamentals, such as the gradual fall of tonnage oversupply. As a result, the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has climbed to levels not seen in recent years. It ended yesterday's session up by 106 points to 2,127, with Panamaxes following the recent Capesize rallying and leading the pack. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) was up by 143 points yesterday, reaching a total of 1,745. Capesizes followed, with the BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) rising by 76 to 4,329 points. Smaller ship types were also higher yesterday.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal noted that "the dry bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers no one believed could be achieved in 2013 and the rest of the segments following, the positive sentiment has overtaken even the most skeptic ones".

In a separate report, shipbroker Fearnleys noted on the Capesize market that it's " appearing more and more toppish as gains are primarily obtained for small volume routes, whilst levels for main trades such as Brazil/China and WAust/China are under pressure. Average daily earning are up 20% w-o-w to come in at usd 42k, and a further strengthening/consolidation is very dependant on steady fresh coal and iron ore flows, key factor being chinese steel mills´ need for further restocking or not. With primarily financial players now taking profit prior to quarter-end, FFA values struggle to provide support for ever-increasing period levels - last exemplified by a 180000 dwt built 2010 open prompt China for 12 months at a whopping usd 25k", it said.

On the Panamax market, Fearnleys added that "it continues with strong rates in both basins. Atlantic are extremely busy and rates increases every day. For atlanticrounds owners asking 15-16 k and more from baltic. Fronthaul beeing fixed at 25-27 k levels, on iron ore from Brazil and grain from USG to feast reporeted in the high 50ies up from 42-43 only few weeks ago. Very strong pacific market as well and rounds been concluded at 16k for NOPAC and even 18-19 k for Aussie/Indo rounds. We are now soon ending the 3 rd week with strong increase. Although seemingly well supported by fresh cargoes and strength in other segments a relevant question is if will this continue or if we have we seen the peak for now. The iore out of Brasil togheter with much grain ex USG have been the main drivers supported by good coal volumes and cape spilts in both hemispheres. Period business have kicked off as a result of the stong market, and 1 year coming close to 13 k, short period in the 16-17 range".

Finally, in the Handy markets, "feast  rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit less for trips Indo/China. Nickel Ore still pays a premium a vessels open Philippines were fixed at around $17k for a trip to China. South Africa is same negative sentiment. But ore in PG to China fixed in $13-16k range. Short period seem strong. Ships in North China are fixed around $10-11k for 3/5 months", Fearnleys concluded.

In the sales and purchasing markets, Intermodal noted that "while the confidence on the potential of the MR sector is receiving more confidence, we believe that dry units will receive more interest in the coming days following the rally that is still taking place in the freight market", said the shipbroker. Finally, in the demolition front, it noted that "last week the Reserve Bank of India has made a decisive move in its effort to support the local currency, by boosting its benchmark repurchase rate to 7.5% from 7.25%. This is the first increase since 2011 and one which most economist didn't expect. As the Indian Rupee has been weakening against its US counterpart, reaching consecutive historical lows only recently, the need for support has been expedited even after the Federal Reserve has committed to continue its bond purchase at the current levels, which practically means that the economic recovery is still very much fragile and therefore any rate increases at this stage can be harmful. Despite the rate hike in India, the Rupee hasn't enjoyed any substantial upside yet, fact that is worrisome for the demo market amongst other things. Nevertheless, at least for now, breakers appear to have taken these news positively, as prices across the board picked up, with the Indian Sub-Continent witnessing the bigger increases as expected. Average prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 375-405$/ldt and dry units received about 365-385$/ldt", Intermodal concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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