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Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reaching just over 4,000 points and the average of the 4 TC routes only a breadth away from US$ 40,000/day, it looks as though the worst is now behind us and all market players take an opportunity for a breather and to reorganize their strategy. This climb in the freight market is no small feat. The last time we saw the freight market climb to these levels was back in 2010 in the respective September rally then. This was at a time when the Capesize and VLOC fleet stood at around 1,096 vessels compared to the current fleet of 1,437 (that’s give or take 500 deliveries minus scrapping and a more than 30% increase in carrying capacity). In comparison we now stand head to head with a considerably smaller orderbook schedule (14% orderbook to fleet ratio compared to the 50% seen in 2010) and are still seeing a strong rise in demand from commodities such as iron ore and coal albeit.
As promising as the above may sound, this may end up being nothing more than just a September rally. Rates will drop back down from their current highs and although it doesn’t look likely that they will reach the lows of 2012 any time soon, it also looks unlikely that we will soon see a rapid boom in the market that would drive a major “bull rush” and that may well be why we haven’t really seen that many investors in a hurry to secure units in the secondhand market nor slots in the newbuilding market.
On the Other hand, looking at both the prices in the secondhand market and newbuilding market, you do tend tο wonder why we haven’t seen more activity? I mean it’s not like Capes had been excessively priced compared to Panamaxes, with the latter having witnessed a remarkable rise in interest and activity over the past nine months. Granted that all prices have now gone up since their previous rock bottom levels of December 2012, however there is still reason to take interest in this size segment. Resale, 5 year old and 10 year old units are trading at price levels which are at competitive levels when compared to their newbuilding counterparts. Yes, they may not be new eco-designs, but the discount is still noteworthy (11%, 30% and 56% cheaper than a newbuilding for resale, 5 year old and 10 year old respectively) and when compared to their current going period charter levels, it makes sense to take on this minimal risk as the pay-off seems to be significant.
The current price gap that has occurred has been partly due to the sharp rise in newbuilding prices over the past nine months which was at a faster pace than the secondhand market could accommodate. What’s more is that although we are not at the absolute bottom anymore, we are still at low secondhand price levels which were last seen in the early 2000’s. As an example, a five year old Capesize would be changing hands for US$ 35.0m in the secondhand market in October 2003 while during the same period a newbuilding would cost around US$ 42.5m (meaning that the then discount of a 5 year old vessel was only 22%).
So there you have it. The fundamentals seem to be there for Capes this week and while it has been the Panamaxes that have attracted most of the interest over these past couple of months, it seems to be the Capesize market that is promising higher gains thanks to the current market arbitrage. That is all well and good if you can find a noteworthy vessel for sale in this market, because as it seems, as much as there may be a limited number of buyers for Capes, so too is there a shortage of good quality candidates circulating the market. As such, one wonders how much longer these low price levels may last?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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Showing 4101 to 4105 news of total 6871 |
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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