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Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
 After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reaching just over 4,000 points and the average of the 4 TC routes only a breadth away from US$ 40,000/day, it looks as though the worst is now behind us and all market players take an opportunity for a breather and to reorganize their strategy. This climb in the freight market is no small feat. The last time we saw the freight market climb to these levels was back in 2010 in the respective September rally then. This was at a time when the Capesize and VLOC fleet stood at around 1,096 vessels compared to the current fleet of 1,437 (that’s give or take 500 deliveries minus scrapping and a more than 30% increase in carrying capacity). In comparison we now stand head to head with a considerably smaller orderbook schedule (14% orderbook to fleet ratio compared to the 50% seen in 2010) and are still seeing a strong rise in demand from commodities such as iron ore and coal albeit.
As promising as the above may sound, this may end up being nothing more than just a September rally. Rates will drop back down from their current highs and although it doesn’t look likely that they will reach the lows of 2012 any time soon, it also looks unlikely that we will soon see a rapid boom in the market that would drive a major “bull rush” and that may well be why we haven’t really seen that many investors in a hurry to secure units in the secondhand market nor slots in the newbuilding market.
On the Other hand, looking at both the prices in the secondhand market and newbuilding market, you do tend tο wonder why we haven’t seen more activity? I mean it’s not like Capes had been excessively priced compared to Panamaxes, with the latter having witnessed a remarkable rise in interest and activity over the past nine months. Granted that all prices have now gone up since their previous rock bottom levels of December 2012, however there is still reason to take interest in this size segment. Resale, 5 year old and 10 year old units are trading at price levels which are at competitive levels when compared to their newbuilding counterparts. Yes, they may not be new eco-designs, but the discount is still noteworthy (11%, 30% and 56% cheaper than a newbuilding for resale, 5 year old and 10 year old respectively) and when compared to their current going period charter levels, it makes sense to take on this minimal risk as the pay-off seems to be significant.
The current price gap that has occurred has been partly due to the sharp rise in newbuilding prices over the past nine months which was at a faster pace than the secondhand market could accommodate. What’s more is that although we are not at the absolute bottom anymore, we are still at low secondhand price levels which were last seen in the early 2000’s. As an example, a five year old Capesize would be changing hands for US$ 35.0m in the secondhand market in October 2003 while during the same period a newbuilding would cost around US$ 42.5m (meaning that the then discount of a 5 year old vessel was only 22%).
So there you have it. The fundamentals seem to be there for Capes this week and while it has been the Panamaxes that have attracted most of the interest over these past couple of months, it seems to be the Capesize market that is promising higher gains thanks to the current market arbitrage. That is all well and good if you can find a noteworthy vessel for sale in this market, because as it seems, as much as there may be a limited number of buyers for Capes, so too is there a shortage of good quality candidates circulating the market. As such, one wonders how much longer these low price levels may last?
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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Showing 4101 to 4105 news of total 6871 |
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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