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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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