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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 04 August 13
COAL SWAP MARKET HAS LOST DIRECTION; STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average October 2013 delivery slightly down on day, week and month on Friday, 2 A ...
Sunday, 04 August 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT SOFT DUE TO HOLIDAYS IN INDONESIA - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was fairly steady this week with the BDI recovering towards north since second half of the week with the support o ...
Friday, 02 August 13
DRY BULK MARKET STABILIZES ON RENEWED MARKET ACTIVITY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its positive footing this week, although it's still a far cry to deem the market situation as a growing one, especiall ...
Friday, 02 August 13
ASIA ACCOUNTS FOR 27.95 PERCENT OF US COAL EXPORTS IN Q1, 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 01 August 13
CAPESIZE: THE FLOW OF CARGOES REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE, AND THE PACIFIC IS LOOKING PROMISING - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Pacific market is still facing low activity, so no wonder that the tonnage list is getting longer. It´s still Ramadan and only a fe ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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