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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 30 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 0.48 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET STARTED HEALTHY THIS WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Pacific market started healthy this week. We have seen many bauxite, iron ore and few coal fixtures. Ships passing Singapore were able to ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
NO RATING IMPACT ON INDONESIAN ENERGY COMPANIES FROM RUPIAH DEPRECIATION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the credit profiles of rated Indonesian energy and utilities companies, including thermal coal producers, will largely remain una ...
Wednesday, 28 August 13
THE BDI HAS MOVED TO LEVELS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR - INTERMODAL
By George Bassakos
SnP Broker - Intermodal
We have already reached the end of August and whilst students are preparing themselves for another sc ...
Tuesday, 27 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 15.59 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 15.59 per cent week on week to 2.76 million mt for ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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