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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 30 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 0.48 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET STARTED HEALTHY THIS WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Pacific market started healthy this week. We have seen many bauxite, iron ore and few coal fixtures. Ships passing Singapore were able to ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
NO RATING IMPACT ON INDONESIAN ENERGY COMPANIES FROM RUPIAH DEPRECIATION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the credit profiles of rated Indonesian energy and utilities companies, including thermal coal producers, will largely remain una ...
Wednesday, 28 August 13
THE BDI HAS MOVED TO LEVELS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR - INTERMODAL
By George Bassakos
SnP Broker - Intermodal
We have already reached the end of August and whilst students are preparing themselves for another sc ...
Tuesday, 27 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 15.59 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 15.59 per cent week on week to 2.76 million mt for ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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