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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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