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Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
 The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the light and the beginnings of a sustained recovery. In this sense, London International Shipping Week, which will be in full swing by the time this piece is published, will be a useful thermometer with which to take the patient’s temperature.
We might not get a full appraisal and certainly the industry will need to be kept under observation, but there should be plenty of discussion of whether the worst is over and how quickly earnings and operations can get back to normal.
As a participant this week I shall certainly be looking for signs of returning confidence and full recovery but Jonah that I am, I’m not completely convinced we are out of the woods yet.
The problem that shipping has at the moment is equating activity with achievement. If we all just look busy, the feeling goes, we can work our way out of this. And just when you’re least expecting it, you’ll pop your head up and everything will be rosy again. This scenario is very unlikely to take place, at least in the short term.
For one thing, shipyard capacity is still far, far, too high and the very short memories of those who cashed in at the flood are still strong enough to have them believe that there is money to be made by hanging tight and waiting for better times. In one sense this might be true, if some of the ships lashed together as the yard was being built around them really are as short-lived as some people predict.
It would be a good thing if the global fleet was renewed and its average age reduced so significantly that one source of casualty risk is reduced, or even removed. Unfortunately, recent casualties tend to suggest that it is not as simple as that.
Singling out the shipyards seems a little unfair, after all it is the owners that keep on coming back for more. But the fact that some are prepared to continue to cut prices in order to attract business undermines the entire industry and creates the worst possible two-tier market.
Owners are hardly in the best of health either, an observation based on the eagerness with which they are flocking to new sources of finance – now that the banks have decided they will mostly pass – and their willingness to order against analysis of economic recovery which is far from proven.
The change in complexion of the Chinese economy, even given that country’s extraordinary ability to manage its movements up and down is in stark contrast to the rout being effected on the Indian currency (and others) as a result merely of expectations that the US Fed will taper its QE programme. Micro-economic conditions elsewhere remain fragile to say the least. To take one example, London property prices (and hotel room rates) are high but the country’s recovery seems predicated on very doubtful fundamentals.
Analysts have forecast the end of the commodities boom since the start of the year if not longer and the reversal of fortune in Australia’s economy is testament to that. It seems self-evident that an extractive industry is unsustainable in the very long term but when the demand profile changes, the supply side has to adjust. Look at the tanker market and shale gas for further evidence of that.
The major shipping markets remain volatile and treacherous, even despite the summer’s dry bulk upturn and some semblance of order returning to tanker and containership markets. In the first of these, simply look how far out the forward curve has pushed a recovery – with Cal14 Cape levels below spot values last week.
At the same time costs, primarily as a result of regulation and the cost of quality labour continue to remain high. But the situation here is if anything even more confused. Owners have to budget and plan for some regulations that continue to move away from them and others that seem set in stone, despite concerns that they will be difficult to comply with and will put further pressure on the price of operations.
At the same time, owners are engrossed in hot pursuit of energy efficiency initiatives, many of which sound promising but which are in some cases lacking in empirical evidence as to their efficacy.
Elsewhere, security concerns a remain, with new threats emerging, in Libya, Suez and in the eastern Mediterranean to add to those already well known off east and west Africa. These will hopefully be temporary effects – though ironically some degree of disruption can be good for earnings – but no one can image that a long term closure of the Suez Canal for example is in the industry’s best interest.
New frontiers continue to be explored, with the first Chinese transit of the Northern Sea Route recently completed. Even the secretary general of the IMO has made the journey, suggesting that shipping is preparing for this to become part of the business as usual scenario before long.
And yet doesn’t it also seem likely that during his voyage, Mr Sekimizu will have come to the inescapable conclusion that melting summer ice on the NSR should probably go in the ‘cons’ column when weighing the effect in the context of global warming?
Perhaps he will have returned doubly convinced that the industry must tackle the carbon dioxide issue and perhaps more troublingly, the carbon black issue, before too long.
Still, take a look at this week’s LISW programme and it seems inconceivable that any of these pressing issues will be overlooked. With NGO, governmental and industry representatives from across the board meeting, greeting and generally doing their thing, this is actually a very strong opportunity to build a platform for the next year and beyond.
And in case one was in any doubt that it was a shipping industry affair, there’s even a black tie dinner, where the industry can toast its successes and look to the future, confident it has a handle on all the big issues and solid strategies to cope with them.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 04 November 13
API 8 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.65% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q1' 2014 PRICE
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.24 percept W-W on Friday 1 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
H2' 2014 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE ( SWAPS) SHOWS POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 0.24 percept week on week on Friday 1 ...
Sunday, 03 November 13
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX FELL 13.61 PCT W-W
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to soften on the cape and panamax sectors , however the supramax and handy size remained fairly firm.
...
Saturday, 02 November 13
DRY BULK SHIPPERS AREN'T CELEBRATING, BUT THEIR SILENCE IS GOLDEN - MARKET REALIST
In October, performance for major dry bulk shipping companies was mixed. Companies like DryShips Inc. (DRYS) had pulled back more than Diana Shippin ...
Friday, 01 November 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 0.9 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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