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Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. For example, news from the demolition market, which so far proved a rather helpful resource for both earning ship owners some cash and at the same time helping offset the tonnage oversupply problem, is in a bit of a precarious position. Indian scarpyards find it hard to acquire more vessels, as the Indian rupee seems to be struggling to hold its ground, since it reach 68 per dollar, thus leaving no window of opportunity for further purchases of any demo tonnage.

Updating on this week's latest data, shipbroker Intermodal added that " the Indian Rupee has recovered a bit against the US Dollar but it is undoubtedly too early to talk about a definite reversal yet and even earlier for the news of the local currency stabilizing to feed through the demolition market and get demo buyers back to action. The Indian Sub-Continent has remained in the sidelines for yet another week while China has resumed its decisive effort to gain further market share. It is indicative that not only the majority of freshly reported deals were concluded in the far East but also that the bids offered by Chinese breaking yards have strengthened further in an otherwise falling market. The price gap between China and the rest of the market is practically non-existent as far as dry candidates are concerned, while in some cases offers have even surpassed Indian Sub-Continent levels by more than 20$/ldt. Prices this week for wet tonnage were at around 365-390$/ldt and dry units received about 355-360$/ldt", it said.

Meanwhile, according to a recent report from the shipbroker, " the Bangladesh market is still there to do some quick deals, but the price it can pay up is very low compared to what we were seeing two months ago. The big surprise has now come from the Chinese demo market as there have been rumors that a Panamax BC built in 1989 achieved a price close to US$ 370/ldt, without even much bunkers on board. However, it is our understanding that this was an exception to the rule, as the vessel reported was in very good condition and scrap yards in China were “hungry” for such tonnage since they had seen little activity lately", Intermodal's Christos Trages, SnP broker stated.

He added that "the Chinese second hand market was also very quiet this year as the poor freight market had driven many investors to turn their focus on other industries that had to offer quicker returns and less risk. The new government has focused on increasing investments for infrastructure in order to assist the country’s economy but it has also set 7% as the minimum growth rate, which is one per cent below the 8% the previous government was trying to achieve.  On the other hand all the above seems to have limited impact on Western buyers, especially for ships built in the mid 90’s and up to mid-2000, which have seen keen interest from elsewhere. Some good examples are to be found in the case of the “Danann Island” (75,637 dwt / 2006 blt Sanoyas) rumored to be committed to a Greek family for a price on the high 18mil, the “Belgrano” (76,759 dwt / 2004 blt Sasebo), which reached almost ten Buyers/Inspections, and also in another three Korean owned Panamax bulkers, built in the early 2000, which had about 18 different Buyers already registering their interest. Again here, we had the exception of the Kamsarmax “Ocean Lord” (82,977 dwt / 2005 blt Tsuneishi), which we understand hasn’t attracted much interest and managed only 4 inspections" Trageas said.

He concluded his analysis by taking a peek at the ongoing Syrian crisis. He said that "September has also brought the possibility of a mini military intervention into Syria, which caused oil prices to spike and if the U.S. follows through on its plan, we expect the rest of the energy commodities to follow suit. China is not yet in a position to play a significant role in the Middle East area (however its military progress is huge and well known, having her first aircraft carrier in commission for almost a year now). The country has remained in the sidelines for now, even though it stakes to lose a lot, as the biggest percent of her oil imports are sourced from Middle East. Hopefully all this will end quickly and smoothly with limited negative repercussions to both the people of Syria and the market", he concluded in his report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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