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Thursday, 05 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A HIGH ROLL, MAINLY THANKS TO CAPESIZE APPETITE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Capesize owners have been rejoycing on the back of renewed optimism for the further rise in the dry bulk market's freight rates, especially when one takes a look in the improved market prospects predicted for 2014. According to a recent report from shipbroker Intermodal, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has moved to levels considerably stronger than the beginning of the year lows of 698 points and currently stands to new year heighs of 1,215 points ( after peaking at 1,179 points on July 1st), mainly boosted by strengthened Capesize rates, which have increased 3-fold since the beginning of 2013. Gains in smaller sectors have been more modest, all segments though currently earn above their respective daily OPEX.

According to Intermodal's SnP broker, Mr. George Bassakos, "Cape rates have been mainly driven by renewed iron ore activity to China, whilst strikes in Colombia and port congestions, pushed spot rates in levels last seen in November 2012. It is interesting that this latest surge came earlier this year, in the traditional summer lull, and not during the always more active Q4", he noted.

The shipbroker's analyst also noted that "FFAs are pointing to a sustained growth during Q4, with Capes currently climbing close to $ 22,000/day, Panamaxes at below $ 10,000/day, Supras at excess of $ 10,000/day and smaller Handies at around $ 8,000/day. The next calendar year does not currently signal an impressive recovery, even though many analysts forecasted a more steep market improvement than the one painted by Baltic figures. Panamaxes have replicated last year's performance up to this point, while Supras and Handies have been better performers, compared to their bigger counterpart, proving their flexibility to adjust to volatile market conditions in the seaborne world trade", Bassakos said in his overview of the dry bulk market.

Meanwhile, "SnP wise, it has been an interesting year thus far, with Greeks having a strong presence in both the second hand and the new building market. Japanese owned second-hand tonnage has proven particularly attractive for Greek buyers, who appear to be willing to pay a premium on the “last done”, even though rates have not been supportive of such a buying rush at this stage yet... New building activity has already surpassed last year's levels in most segments - mainly driven by owners' appetite for eco ships, but also by lower quoted prices, which have only recently started moving north again. Scrapping on the other hand has underperformed massively", he pointed out.

So, the big question is what lies ahead for dry bulk market ship owners? According to Bassakos, "in Hellas, we tend to change our educational system so often that students sometimes are not familiar with the new academic year's syllabus. Are we in face with a similar situation here? Well, the sentiment is more positive as of late and it seems that we won’t be moving in uncharted waters this time. It remains to see if the good captain will lead us to a safer port, i.e. improved/healthy market activity, or back to Scylla and Charybdis, i.e. uncertainties surrounding the global economy, China's slowing growth, capital exit from emerging markets, anemic growth in Europe, tonnage overcapacity etc. etc.", the analyst concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide



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