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Thursday, 09 July 09
COAL EXPORTS TO CHINA MAY FALL AS PRICES, SHIPPING RATES RISE


CHINA'S appetite for Australian coal may fall in July and August from earlier highs, due to a recent recovery in regional prices and higher international shipping rates.

In the latest development, Reuters reported yesterday that a cargo of high-ash, low-volatile content Australian coal already on the water was offered at $US72 a tonne after the Chinese buyer cancelled the contract.

Chinese coal traders contacted today were mostly unaware of any cancellation, but some said that if a cargo already on the water had been cancelled, this would be very unusual.

A trader with a southern China company said imported coal was no longer cheaper than domestic coal due to higher freight rates and the rising price of imports.

His company, the trader said, had as a result now stopped importing coal from Australia.

News of the reported cancellation was the subject of chatter in foreign exchange markets yesterday, and some participants suggested that commodity-related tensions between Australia and China may have been an element involved.

RBC Capital Markets senior strategist Sue Trinh said the reported cancellation "might have been simply due to China already having enough on stockpile, and slower domestic demand pick-up, but the timing was intriguing".

China's imports of Australian coal have risen sharply this year. In the first five months of 2009, these imports were six times higher than during the same period a year earlier, at 10.47 million metric tons, according to the latest data released by China customs.

May import levels were dramatically higher, at 3.65 million tons, 15 times higher than in May 2008.

The buying spree earlier this year was mainly a result of a plunge in Australian coal prices and freight rates, as global economic woes slashed regional demand for coal and curbed trading activity, traders said.

As a result, Asia benchmark coal prices plummeted by two thirds from a July 2008 peak of $194.8/ton.

However, demand from China has helped prices rally by around 20 per cent since early April.

Australian coal at the port of Newcastle, a regional benchmark, was assessed around $US73.13/ton by globalCOAL today, compared with around $US60 in early April.

In addition, bulk freight rates have more than doubled over the past month, with the Baltic capsize index up 220 per cent and the broader Baltic Dry up 130 per cent, Citigroup said yesterday in a research note.

China's benchmark spot coal prices, which were quoted at 590 yuan to 605 yuan on Monday, have remained relatively stable since February, data released by the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association shows.

Coal stockpiles in China are very high. Stocks at the major coal shipping port of Qinhuangdao stood at 6.6 million tons on Monday, the highest level in almost four months, despite higher demand for thermal coal from power generation during the summer.

Stockpiles at power plants are also high, the association said, and added that power plants along the Yangtze River in eastern China had enough coal for 21 days of consumption and plants in central China had enough for 67 days.

Source: The Australian



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