We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
|
|
|
Showing 4131 to 4135 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
|
| |
| |
|
