We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
|
|
|
Showing 4096 to 4100 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
