We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
|
|
|
Showing 4066 to 4070 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
|
| |
| |
|
