We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
 By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time around and what we got – but did not anticipate. As the Summer heat arrived, Capesize owners found themselves basking in the sun. Average earnings for Capesize vessels went from USD 6,000 per day to USD 12,000 per day in less than two weeks. The momentum lifted rates as high as USD 15,218 per day on 1 July. This was a sizeable and very welcome surprise as the combination, once again, of vessels being at the “right place at the right time” proved to be profitable. As Brazilian iron ore exports in particular jumped after some weaker months, congestion at load ports rose and charterers were left searching for prompt and available tonnage. At the same time, Australian iron ore ports were hit by heavy rainfall which also affected shipping. It is a little miracle that tight situations can still appear and push up freight rates, in spite of tonnage being abundant in the market. Since the 1 July peak, freight rates have slid slowly, as the imbalanced market is smoothed by ballasting tonnage returning to the Atlantic from the Far East. Some of the weakness in most of H1 is due to the fact that Brazil has been losing some of its share of the iron ore market to Australia.
Besides that, the market is affected by falling commodity prices (iron ore, steel and coal). This could, in theory, positively affect shipping demand if consumers and traders take advantage of it and stock up, but it may as well mirror a fundamental slowdown in demand.
No slowdown is seen in steel production fortunately, at Chinese steel production went up by 9.2% in the first half as compared to same period last year. Iron ore imports “only” went up by 4.8% in the same period of time. Both indicators are positive for shipping demand. Traditionally, Chinese iron ore demand is stronger in the second half of the year; this could build a case for stronger rates in the larger segments in Q3 and Q4 if this seasonality is repeated.
The larger production of steel and moderate consumption of same has put steel prices under pressure. Falling steel prices are normally quite worrying for the dry bulk sector. In the wake of several months with record high steel production, prices weakened continuously, getting quite close to the threateningly low levels of August/September 2012. But has the scare just evaporated with the latest pick up in prices toward the end of July? That is still too early to call despite the optimism in most recent “official” China manufacturing PMI report.
Supply:
During the past two months, 10 million DWT of new tonnage has joined the dry bulk fleet, which now totals at 704 million DWT. This is up by 3.6% since 1 January.
Looking at future delivery prospect, 70% of all new orders placed during the past two months have been for 2015 delivery. In addition to some postponements, this has pushed the projected orders for 2015 delivery up from 20 million to 25 million DWT.
For 2013, BIMCO projects new tonnage of 70 million to hit the water, a four-year low, and a gradual return to a lower supply pressure on the market.
While new orders have been fairly equally distributed for the past two months as a whole, June saw a flurry of Supramax orders whereas July was pretty biased towards Capesize vessels. As a lot of Panamax ships are currently being delivered into an oversupplied market, owners showed only little appetite for placing new orders for Panamax ships.
In total, the dry bulk order book has grown by 3.2 million DWT during the recent two months. It now stands at 126 million DWT. It’s the first time in more than two and a half years that the order book has increased, on its way down from 300 million DWT highs at the end of 2010.
As 29 million DWT of new vessels have been ordered so far in 2013, the total has already surpassed that of the full year 2012. This development seems to have stopped the slide of new building prices, which are now seen to be on a slow rise, with the exception of Panamax new building prices which are still flat, as demand does not support higher prices in this segment yet.
Outlook:
As the global and Chinese GDP are now seen lower than earlier in the year, we also have to settle for something that might be the sixth consecutive year of supply outpacing demand. But the race is still on, as supply is set for 5.7% and demand for 5-6%.
China’s import of agricultural products could provide some upside, as wheat and soybeans could end up falling short of demand due to adverse weather conditions. If imports of wheat are supplied predominantly by US producers, which is likely, this may bring some growth in demand due to long sailing distances. The same effect can be expected by increased Brazilian exports of soybeans in the second half of the year following a congestion-affected export level in the January-May period.
In recent months, Asian thermal coal prices have nose-dived, as plenty of coal is offered in the market. Utilities are no longer worried about running stocks low, as supply is excessive. During the second quarter, Russian, Columbian and American coal was also offered into the market, putting further pressure on traditional Indonesian and Australian coal markets. FOB thermal coal prices for “Newcastle 5500” or “Richards Bay 5500” were just above USD 66 per Mt coming down from USD 75 per Mt and USD 72 per Mt respectively. As we know, demand is healthy, the lower prices could prove a catalyst for higher freight rates as we move further into Q3. Further weakening of the Indian Rupee or the Japanese Yen could dampen the positive effect somewhat.
To sum up, our forecast for the coming 2 months:
BIMCO holds the view that Capesize TC average rates are expected around USD 8,000-13,000 per day.
Panamax is expected to stay in the USD 6,000-9,000 per day interval.
For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 8,000-11,000 per day interval,
whereas Handysize rates are forecast to show limited volatility in the interval of USD 6,500-9,000 per day.
Source: BIMCO Peter Sand Chief Shipping Analyst / Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 22 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SERVED 38 OCEAN GOING VESSELS IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 0.64 per cent week on week to 3.21 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 22 October 13
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR MULTI GRADE COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO), a Korean electricity generator intends to procure 240,000 tons of multi grade coal for its Ta ...
Monday, 21 October 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR 2014 DELIVERIES SHOW A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.02 percept M-M on Friday 18 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 20 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 61.80 PMT W/E 18 OCT' 13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.93 percept month on month on Friday 18 October 201 ...
Saturday, 19 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS KEEP SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES STEADY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The futures freight market continued to go down which was reflected in the physical markets as well.
The BDI continued to be soft ...
|
|
|
Showing 4051 to 4055 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
|
| |
| |
|
