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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 13
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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