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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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