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Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest weekly report from London-based shipbroker Gibson, "it wasn’t that long ago that Indonesia was described as the underperforming gem of the Far-East, having an abundance of natural resources: oil, gas, coal, timber etc. Economic growth has been in the region of 5-6% p.a. over the past several years, but could have achieved growth similar to that of China or India, given the right conditionns.

However, recent statistics indicate that this same nation is very much in energy decline, with reserves of crude oil and coal depleting rapidly. The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, shows that Indonesian oil reserves have fallen to 3.7 billion barrels and are forcing the government to import more crude and product to meet rising oil demand. Ageing fields and the lack on new discoveriees continues to be a major headache for a nation which was still a member of the Opec family less than 5 years ago" it said.

Gibson noted that "the BP review shows that last year oil production from the Asian nation stood at 918,000 b/d, while consumption was close to 1.6 million b/d. Indonesian oil production has now fallen to a 40 year low causing the government considerable difficulty both in terms of diminishing export revenue and the fact that energy subsidies have been providing Indonesians with the cheapest fuel in Asia. In order to reduce the nation’s budget deficit, the government in June announced a 20% cut in subsidies. Although no date has been set for the introduction of this price hike, widespread demonstrations have resulted. Indonesia’s production target for this year has been set at 900,000 b/d, but this is unlikely to be achieved with the energy regulator forecasting nearer 830,000 b/d. At the same time, fuel c nsumption and crude imports are surging on the back of cheap subsidised fuel causing the deficit to widen", Gibson said.

According to the shipbroker, "Indonesia has been forced to make up its crude shortfall with imports from Saudi Arabia, West Africa, Libya and Azerbaijan, while the dwindling exports go into the short-haul intra-Asia trade. Aspirations to increase refinery capacity have so far failed to materialise with a failed partnership with Iran abandoned some years ago. More recently negotiations with Iraq, Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia have led to little more than discussion and no formal projects have been tabled to date. Indonesia has the fourth largest population in the world, and the gap between crude production and consumption continues to grow, causing major political issues. While LNG will provide some respite for the government, it is clear that the demand for both crude and pooduct transportationn will provide growth opportunities for tankers as Indonesia’s growing demand fails to be met internallly.

Meanwhile, in the crude tanker market this week, in the Middle East, "VLCC continued to follow the same track already beaten in June and July with chaterers initially witholdinng to draw down sentiment, and then fixing in numbers to take advantage of that, setting a new 'conference' lower raterange of ws 34/36 to the East and ws 22/23 to the West via Cappe. Now we are effectively at the half-time point in the August game, and if the previous path continues to be followed, then another busier patch will eventtually develop to hand opportunity back to owners once again. Unfortunately for them, this time, availability is a little heavier on the eye, and the Atlantic market is much less supportive, so the peaks of July are less likely to be reachieved even if an upswing does indeed develop.

Suezmaxes enjoyed another week of very strong activity with an over-abundance of short hauls to India also a feature. Rates jumped to as high as ws 55 to the West and close to ws 90 for India with around ws 70 achievable for longer hauls to the East. Aframaxes kept to a steady beat and stayed tight enough to maintain rates in the low/mid ws 90,s bracket to Singapore, where they should remain for the near term at least", Gibson noted.

Finally, in the Mediterannean, "Suezmaxes here operated in reverse manner with the back end of the week showing more strength than the start.140,000 from the Black Sea moved to as high as ws 70 to Europe, with a ws 75 rumoured, but not proved. Volumes aren’t especially heavy, but tight availability on the earlier dates has forced some issues. Aframaxes kicked off nicely, but gradually found supply outweighed demand, and rates fell to 80,000 by ws 77.5/80 Cross Med, and moves to dates that look well enough tonnaged to keep the market soft", Gibson concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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