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Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whether more production will be shut down. Wood Mackenzie estimates that in 2013, only 4 million tonnes (mt) of coal production in Australia is at risk of closure even though 32mt of coal will be produced at negative margins, including sustaining capital. The decision to continue production instead of shutting it down can mainly be attributed to transport and port contracts in Australia, otherwise known as 'take-or-pay' contracts.
Take-or-pay contracts are fixed cost contracts that result in most producers paying for capacity regardless of tonnes shipped. Stronger growth in exports relative to new capacity build will reduce the average cost per tonne that miners pay for not fully utilising contracted capacity.
Mr. Viktor Tanevski, Coal Cost Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says, "There have only been two mine closures so far in 2013 compared to seven in 2012. Despite the low coal price environment and current margin squeeze, take-or-pay contracts are incentivising coal producers to increase rather than reduce production, even if additional production is generating negative cash margins. This is because the fixed cost of infrastructure capacity makes the cost of shutting down even more expensive than the cost of maintaining production."
"We estimate that only 4mt, or just over 1% of Australia's coal exports in 2013, is at risk of closure based on Hard Coking Coal (HCC) price of US$171/t and thermal coal price of US$92/t. This is not a significant volume of output; however the amount at risk increases significantly under a lower price scenario.
Wood Mackenzie analyses that if average prices fall to US$122/t for HCC and US$77/t for thermal coal in 2013, then 45mt or 13% of Australia's coal exports in 2013 will be at risk of closure. At that price, a total of 204mt of production will be suffering negative margins.
In summary, Mr. Tanevski says, "Our expectation is that there will not be a significant dent in Australia's production this year. However, if prices do fall below expectations, the risk of closure for mines producing at negative margins will increase, reducing output."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 millio ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
HANDY : USD 12000 FOR SPOT COAL INDO/CHINA AND AROUND USD 13000 INDO/ECI - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic rates hold well. Continent to Far East is worth more than USD 14k daily whilst USG to Far East pay 23/24k a day. On the route from B ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
DRY BULK CARRIERS DOMINATE NEWBUILDING ORDERS AS SHIP OWNERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY LATEST FREIGHT RATE RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers were already high, compared to last year, prior to the latest rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ha ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
CAPESIZE MARKET TO REMAIN BULLISH SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been experiencing its long-awaited rally, with the Baltic Dry Index, the industry's benchmark rising to healthier levels fo ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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