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Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whether more production will be shut down. Wood Mackenzie estimates that in 2013, only 4 million tonnes (mt) of coal production in Australia is at risk of closure even though 32mt of coal will be produced at negative margins, including sustaining capital. The decision to continue production instead of shutting it down can mainly be attributed to transport and port contracts in Australia, otherwise known as 'take-or-pay' contracts.
Take-or-pay contracts are fixed cost contracts that result in most producers paying for capacity regardless of tonnes shipped. Stronger growth in exports relative to new capacity build will reduce the average cost per tonne that miners pay for not fully utilising contracted capacity.
Mr. Viktor Tanevski, Coal Cost Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says, "There have only been two mine closures so far in 2013 compared to seven in 2012. Despite the low coal price environment and current margin squeeze, take-or-pay contracts are incentivising coal producers to increase rather than reduce production, even if additional production is generating negative cash margins. This is because the fixed cost of infrastructure capacity makes the cost of shutting down even more expensive than the cost of maintaining production."
"We estimate that only 4mt, or just over 1% of Australia's coal exports in 2013, is at risk of closure based on Hard Coking Coal (HCC) price of US$171/t and thermal coal price of US$92/t. This is not a significant volume of output; however the amount at risk increases significantly under a lower price scenario.
Wood Mackenzie analyses that if average prices fall to US$122/t for HCC and US$77/t for thermal coal in 2013, then 45mt or 13% of Australia's coal exports in 2013 will be at risk of closure. At that price, a total of 204mt of production will be suffering negative margins.
In summary, Mr. Tanevski says, "Our expectation is that there will not be a significant dent in Australia's production this year. However, if prices do fall below expectations, the risk of closure for mines producing at negative margins will increase, reducing output."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
BDI STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES JUMP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its upward trend and maintaining the moment with BDI and Cape index up by 16 pct week on week. The Capesi ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ADVANCE
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 2.09 percept month on month on Friday 20 September 2 ...
Friday, 20 September 13
SHIP OWNERS INVEST MORE THAN $9.2 BILLION ON NEW BUILDING VESSELS DURING AUGUST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that August is traditionally a slow month in terms of ships investment activity, ship owners have grasped this year the opportunity ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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