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Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whether more production will be shut down. Wood Mackenzie estimates that in 2013, only 4 million tonnes (mt) of coal production in Australia is at risk of closure even though 32mt of coal will be produced at negative margins, including sustaining capital. The decision to continue production instead of shutting it down can mainly be attributed to transport and port contracts in Australia, otherwise known as 'take-or-pay' contracts.
Take-or-pay contracts are fixed cost contracts that result in most producers paying for capacity regardless of tonnes shipped. Stronger growth in exports relative to new capacity build will reduce the average cost per tonne that miners pay for not fully utilising contracted capacity.
Mr. Viktor Tanevski, Coal Cost Analyst at Wood Mackenzie, says, "There have only been two mine closures so far in 2013 compared to seven in 2012. Despite the low coal price environment and current margin squeeze, take-or-pay contracts are incentivising coal producers to increase rather than reduce production, even if additional production is generating negative cash margins. This is because the fixed cost of infrastructure capacity makes the cost of shutting down even more expensive than the cost of maintaining production."
"We estimate that only 4mt, or just over 1% of Australia's coal exports in 2013, is at risk of closure based on Hard Coking Coal (HCC) price of US$171/t and thermal coal price of US$92/t. This is not a significant volume of output; however the amount at risk increases significantly under a lower price scenario.
Wood Mackenzie analyses that if average prices fall to US$122/t for HCC and US$77/t for thermal coal in 2013, then 45mt or 13% of Australia's coal exports in 2013 will be at risk of closure. At that price, a total of 204mt of production will be suffering negative margins.
In summary, Mr. Tanevski says, "Our expectation is that there will not be a significant dent in Australia's production this year. However, if prices do fall below expectations, the risk of closure for mines producing at negative margins will increase, reducing output."
Editor's notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world's energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit Wood Mackenzie.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- The University of Queensland
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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