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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
 The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 million tons by sea, but in 2012 that number had increased to 106.7 million tons. The effect on shipping has multiplied due to the fact that much of the demand growth has come from East Asian countries. With a large part of the US Coal destined for East Asia being shipping out of the US East Coast ports, this will increase the demand for tonnage.
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says: “As a consequence, the transportation demand stemming from US coal exports has surged from 84.7 billion tonne-miles in 2002 to an estimated 707.3 billion tonne-miles in 2012 (835% over the period). In comparison, the Chinese coal imports in 2012 accounted for an estimated 697.6 billion tonne-miles of demand for seaborne transportation. This means the US coal exports was more important to the dry bulk shipping market than the Chinese coal imports in 2012”.
Dissection of the US coal exports
The US exported 22.0 million tons of coal to the East Asian countries of South Korea, Japan and China in 2012, of which 5.1 million tons came from Pacific ports. The Pacific ports export thermal coal to East Asia, while the US East coast and Gulf coast (USEC/USGC) ports export both thermal coal and coking coal. Of the total 22.0 million tons exported to East Asia in 2012, coking coal made up 14.9 million tons (68%) and thermal coal made up 7.1 million tons (32%). 40% of the coal exported to East Asia came from Baltimore, a Capesize-accommodating port that attracts Asian buyers, who also has to accept an extended distance of more than 14,000 nautical miles to reach the port of discharge. Likewise, the US exported 51.3 million tons of coal to the EU in 2012. The main destinations were the Netherlands and the UK with a total of 23.1 million tons. A part of the coal exports to the Netherlands are subsequently transhipped to German buyers. Traditionally, most of the European trade has been for coking coal, but 2012 marked the year where this pattern changed. In 2012, the US exported 27.9 million tons of thermal coal to the EU (54%), but only 23.4 million tons of coking coal (46%). Unlike the exports going to East Asia, all coal exports to Europe came from USEC/USGC ports making the transit distances substantially shorter. The result is that the exports to East Asia are more beneficial for the shipping industry than the exports to the European Union, despite involving much lower volumes.
Thermal coal exports – Reflecting a new energy market in the US
The increased thermal coal exports is explained by the large-scale exploitation of unconventional fuels in the US, which has made consumption of domestic oil and gas relatively cheaper. The average Brent-WTI spread went from nothing to around USD 17 per barrel during 2011 and 2012, while domestic US natural gas prices have halved since mid-2000s.
As a consequence, the domestic consumption of coal fell by 11% to 807.8 million tons in 2012. Since the production only fell by 7.2% to 922.1 million tons, the potential for exports has increased. Meanwhile, European gas-driven power plants suffer from oil-indexed contracts and higher oil prices, making coal the cheapest option for energy in Europe. Working in the same direction was the “collapsing” carbon prices within the EU ETS which only made the appetite for coal more significant. “Back loading” or not in the EU ETS, this is probably going to be the case also in the coming years. The low freight rates during the past two years have also been an incentive for importing coal from countries far away such as the US and Colombia. The thermal coal to East Asia is primarily shipped to South Korea, who has virtually no coal mining industry. The increased South Korean demand for US coal originates from a desire to diversify trading partners to manage rising coal costs.
Coking coal exports – a matter of Chinese steel production
Coking coal demand in East Asia has largely been a result of an increased Chinese steel production. The Chinese steel output in 2012 was four times larger than in 2002, while the production in Japan and South Korea has remained relatively unchanged. As a consequence, China has increased its imports of coking coal, which has benefitted the US as well.
South Korea has traditionally imported coking coal from Australia, Canada and China. However, due to the Chinese domestic demand, South Korean steel mills have to source their coal elsewhere than China, which has benefitted exporting countries such as the US and Russia. Japan has imported less coking coal post-2008, but the country has increased its coking coal imports from the US as a substitute for Australian coking coal, which means that the distances travelled increase fourfold.
In the EU, seaborne coking coal demand has been relatively stable over the last decade, but a larger share is being sourced from the US. In 2002, the US exported 9.9 million tons to the European Union; in 2012, the number had increased to 23.4 million tons. The increased demand for coking coal came from Germany and the Netherlands in particular, but also from Italy, France and the UK. Outlook Looking forward, India could become a medium-term growth factor as the country has experienced very high demand growth for US coal during the past five years. The US exported 6.4 million tons to India in 2012 – all shipped from USEC/USGC ports. Back in the US there are talks about building a large coal export terminal at Cherry Point, state of Washington or in the state of Oregon. One proposal, at Cherry Point near the Canadian border on the West Coast, plans to have a capacity of 48 million tons per year. The terminals would accommodate the large thermal coal reserves in Montana and Wyoming. Out of the 431.1 million tons of thermal coal produced in 2011 in these states, only 15.5 million tons were exported (source: EIA). The terminals are being built to meet the increasing demand for coal-fired power generation in East Asia, and at full capacity, the Cherry Point terminal would create employment for 40 Capesize vessels on an annualised basis. We expect to see a surge in exports if the terminals are built. US thermal coal exports to East Asia in April were slightly up from the same month last year (8%), but down by 24% from the month before which represented an all-time-high in total coal exports. Coking coal is more of a joker, as the April numbers throw a wet blanket over the party. Coking coal exports to East Asia were substantially down from the same month last year (-40%) as well as from last month (-44%). Sources attribute this to lower GDP growth in China combined with a massive oversupply of coal in East Asia. Some analysts therefore expect US coal exports to be 10-15% lower this year compared to last year.
Another potential threat comes from the talks of a Chinese ban on high-sulphur and low-calorific coal, as much of the US coal going to China has a high content of sulphur. In 2012, China imported 8 million tons of coal with sulphur content above 1%. It is however uncertain if Beijing will ratify the coal ban. However the US has lots of low sulphur coal reserves to substitute the high sulphur coal if it is demanded.
“When we look into the future, global demand for thermal and coking coal is set for solid growth with thermal coal being in the driving seat both in terms of volume and percentage growth. If the US can stay price competitive in the market and scale up Pacific port capacity, the longer sailing distances are likely to benefit dry bulk shipping demand along the road” adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO / Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 30.61 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 30.61 per cent week on week to 2.95 million mt for ...
Monday, 12 August 13
GBCE SUCCESSFUL IN UPGRADING LOW RANK INDONESIAN COAL ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) has annoused that, the company has successfully upgraded 2,426 tonnes of low rank 4,018 kcal NAR Ind ...
Monday, 12 August 13
INDIA - SAFE SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE FINES FROM INDIAN PORTS - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
As Members may be aware, in 2009 two ships, the ‘Asian Forest’ and the ‘Black Rose’, capsized and sank following the liquefa ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS : FLAT ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery flat on day due to holidays in Indonesia, Malaysia & ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA CONTINUED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was soft this week with all indices down , the reason could be long weekend holidays in Indonesia, Singapore and M ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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