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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 April 13
REALM CONTINUES AS 51% OWNER AND MANAGER OF THE KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL PROJECT
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced today that, the commercial way forward for the development of its 51% held Indonesian t ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
TIGERS REALM COAL HAS SOME OF THE WORLD'S BEST UNDEVELOPED COKING COAL ASSETS - EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
COALspot.com - “ During 2012, your Company has made very significant progress towards meeting its stated objective of becoming a global player ...
Tuesday, 23 April 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS DROPPED BY 4.38 PERCENT W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,434,336 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 22 April 2013, Newca ...
Sunday, 21 April 13
INDONESIA - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES ARE FIRMING UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The BDI was up by 1.40 pct closed at 888 points week ended 19 April 2013. The Cape index was down by 2.45 pct closing at 1234 p ...
Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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