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Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, in terms of future prospects. According to the latest report from shipbroker Intermodal, over the past couple of months we have seen a drastic decoupling of the SnP markets from the reality of the freight markets. "This slowly developing two-tier structure is nothing new, however the widening gap between the two has recently been of much concern to most market players. But why is this gap developing and more crucially, is it sustainable?", wondered Intermodal's Research Analyst, Mr. George Lazaridis.
Attempting to explain this odd situation, he notes that "in the past any widening gap was more difficult to sustain as the fewer amount of asset players in the market left for a market environment with considerably less speculation. During the 2000’s boom this all changed rapidly as the financial markets started to heavily influence the way shipping people made investment decisions. The world of derivatives and complex financial instruments entered our world and had a profound effect, shifting our perspective of the ship itself. It no longer has the image of an industrial machine for transportation, but rather an exchangeable commodity that through time will fluctuate wildly in value. Fast forwarding to where we are today it seems that a part of that legacy has caused the creation of a more forward looking investor who is able to see the benefits of acting in a “bad market” in the hope that he has read the market correctly and that through the life of his investment the average return will be sufficiently lucrative", he said in the weekly report.
Lazaridis went on by noting that "looking at some of the latest deals that we have seen, is there any evidence that these have been done through valid analysis of the current market fundamentals or is it just wildly speculative? The answer to this is that we don’t know. With the market fluctuating in such a volatile way and so unpredictable at times, it seems to be that each investor has different beliefs as to where the market will be over the next couple of months. Its majority rule here and as the lack in serious sellers has kept buyers on their toes, prices have inevitably gone up as each interested buyer outbids the other in order to secure one of the few new sales candidates circulating the market", he said.
According to the analyst, "the nature of all these buyers has been the main driver of the recent price trends. Most upscale European buyers that would typically look at very modern units had been fairly inactive during most of 2012. Their sudden interest created a flurry of activity and over the past 5 months pushed prices up by between 15-20% for vessels of less than 10 years old across most size segments. Panamaxes and Supramaxes have been the ones drawing the most attention and as such have shown the biggest rise in prices", Lazaridis said.
Concluding his argument, he pointed out that "going back to the point of decoupling markets, freight rates have followed a wildly different course. Spot Rates are currently trending at considerably lower than the average seen during 2012 (in the case of Panamaxes that’s around 3% lower) and we haven’t even gone through the summer lull period yet.
FFA’s are also supporting this point further, with expectation for forward rates being soft for a considerable period into the future, although there has been a small upward correction over the past weeks. Even in the case where one would believe of an improving market within 2014 and 2015, there seems to be no reasonable basis for paying an extra premium this early in the cycle and in effect also having to suffer through several months of poor rates, while even the possibility for a recovery being so fragile and there is a constant overshadowing threat that further new ordering could take place and once again engulf the market with excess tonnage. Bets are being placed but I’m not sure that these current premiums will be sustained throughout 2013. As things hold in certain markets such as that of modern panamaxes, it seems to be a better option to sit on the sidelines and act coy in hope that the flock of current buyers will take their pickings and leave the markets once again to drop back down to levels that make more business sense", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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