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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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