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Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as freight rates haven't had that necessary push to jumpstart. According to the latest monthly report from shipbroker Intermodal, "this has been reflected in the continuous drop in price for the commodity which was on an almost free-fall course from its latest price peak of $158.9 per dry ton reached on the 20th of February. The significantly slower economic momentum of China has slashed demand for this development-linked commodity, dragging both the price as well as the freight cost to multi-month lows. This is set to continue for most of the year, with destocking still a central strategy in China", the report said.
According to Mr. George Lazaridis, Research Analyst with Intermodal, "the industry view tends to be that for the long-run, even these bottom-of-the-cycle prices are much higher than what most analysts believe should be the prevailing level. This leads to an expectation of surplus production which eventually could lead to problems in ship-ping, as sources such as South Africa increase their stake in China’s iron ore imports, slashing in turn tonne-mile demand for Capes.
The question that is of more vital importance and an ongoing topic of conversation this year amongst shipping circles is; When can we expect an improvement in market fundamentals?
The answer is looking somewhat more worrying for Capes. It will take a lot more than just cheap commodity prices to get things going again. The Chinese slowdown does not seem to be a temporary hiccup and as such people should be taking it more serious", he noted.
With China accounting last year for 47% of global steel production, there is no debate as to who drives the demand for Capes. "Being heavily dependent on Chinese heavy industry production and investment in infrastructure any further slowdown in economic growth has an imminent impact on freight rates for this sector. Without this driving demand it is hard for this segment to see the sharp rise in freight rates and secondhand prices that many had hoped we would reach within this year. Nevertheless it’s not all black. Baosteel sees a 1-2 pct increase in Chinese steel production this year. The year-to-date increase in output of 7% shows a promise for improved markets in the final quarter, while at the same time it would take a substantial slow-down in output in the second-half for there to be a year-on-year drop in Chinese steel output", Lazaridis said.
With all the above in mind a few questions arise, like for instance, where is the basis for all this business being reported in the Capesize market? Is there a sense that previous bullish sentiment for this size group is leading new investment without there being a real demand for further fleet growth? Could this lead to further dragging out of sub-performing markets?
According to Lazaridis' viewpoint, "over the past couple of months we have seen the majority of trading sessions being reported at average freight figures bellow what is expected for most owners to cover OPEX. Even on some of the more positive trading days, TCE increases are temporary and usually attributed to momentary decreases in bunker costs as well as slow steaming throughout the fleet which helps increase what little extra earnings owners can squeeze out of the current market rates. The counter argument to this can be found in part in the wisdom of old. Through most shipping cycles owners have usually taken a long-term position hoping to make high gains through the cycle rather than only looking to act during periods where the market is on the rise. If they waited for the later we would not have any ship owners left. This may explain activity in the secondhand market however things are very different when it comes to newbuildings. Capesize newbuilding designs have not had the same overhaul in performance that we have seen in other size segments. So why are owner’s risking of drowning the market with further ordering when there are plenty of well-priced secondhand units available. It seems to be yet again the case of easier financing, respectively lower prices, easi-er payment terms and forward delivery that have the upside of even gaining in value before you have made full payment. As promising as all these sound to a potential buyer, a word of caution to the brave, “as you sow, so shall you reap”, he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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