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Tuesday, 04 June 13
WOOD MACKENZIE SAYS THE CHINA'S THERMAL COAL DEMAND WILL REACH NEARLY 7BTPA BY 2030
 COALspot.com - The Illusion of Peak Coal' says that despite efforts to limit coal consumption and seek alternative fuel options, China's strong appetite for thermal coal will lead to a doubling of demand by 2030. China’s demand will grow to approximately seven billion tonnes per annum (btpa) of thermal coal which is contrary to speculation that China's thermal coal demand may be reaching a peak in the next decade.
"It is very unlikely that demand for thermal coal in China will peak before 2030," states Mr. William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based President of Global Markets. "Why? Because China’s aggressive investment program for nuclear, natural gas and renewables capacity is centred in the coastal region while coal-fired capacity grows in the central and western provinces. Indeed, there are also a plethora of coal-intensive conversion projects being built or planned that are significantly adding to demand.”
"Wood Mackenzie’s analysis already takes into account a rapid improvement in energy efficiency the likes of which have not been seen. We expect power demand per unit of GDP to fall by half in just 17 years, an extraordinary achievement for an economy experiencing such sustained growth. In spite of this efficiency improvement, power demand is still set to nearly triple to 15,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) by 2030. Indeed, if expected efficiency improvements do not materialise, then in the absence of alternatives, coal demand could increase further."
Coal is an important natural resource for a number of provinces seeking investment, jobs and tax revenues. Already there are government-approved coal conversion projects (coal-to-gas, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-petrochemicals) that account for over 0.25 btpa of thermal demand. Additionally, there are planned projects that will increase demand by another 0.6 btpa. Mr. Durbin notes that “Total Chinese industrial demand for thermal coal is expected to grow from 1.5 to nearly 2.1 btpa by 2030. In comparison, the US, the world’s second largest domestic market for coal, consumes only 1.0 btpa in total. If a cap on coal consumption in China is imposed, it will come at a cost to provincial economies.”
In order for China to reduce power-driven demand for coal, a significant increase in the availability of natural gas for the power and industrial sectors is required. But Wood Mackenzie believes natural gas supplies will struggle to meet demand growth due to modest investment in conventional reserves and the very slow development of domestic unconventional shale gas reserves. Additionally, the high cost of LNG and pipeline imports is uncompetitive with low cost coal.
China’s gas price and power tariff regulations will need to be reformed in order to create incentives for the national oil companies (NOCs) to make expensive investments in unconventional gas. Mr. Durbin highlights, “Our analysis already assumes an intensive investment program in unconventionals post-2020. To ramp up shale gas developments and production faster to displace coal will require a near-doubling of investment. We expect coal to hold its cost advantage until shale gas breakeven costs fall by 40-50%."
Aside from coal substitution by natural gas, China hopes to reduce coal usage in the coastal demand centres by building Ultra High Voltage (UHV) electricity transmission lines from the Northwest and Southwest. Wood Mackenzie's report says this will have a limited impact on coal demand. The transmission lines from the northwest will transmit coal-fired generation; hence, it just moves coal demand from the coast to the interior. The UHV lines from the southwest will transmit seasonal hydro, requiring base load coal when hydro output falls. The net effect of the UHV lines and the non-coal-fired capacity is a flattening in thermal coal demand in the coastal power region.
Mr. Durbin concludes, "Government mandates to improve the environment by reducing coal use will require steep investments in alternatives, the use of emission control technology or reduce economic growth rate targets further—options which are not currently happening. But what is noteworthy, however, is that there is greater potential for further demand growth beyond our expectations. Failure to meet an aggressive non-coal power capacity build, investment in more efficient technologies and the expansion of the UHV network will increase the dependence on and use of coal. In the end, China's thermal coal demand will see persistent growth until 2030, rendering peak coal an illusion.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 04 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.56 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,563,596 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
COAL PRICES STRUGGLE TO FIRM UP
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.18 percent week on week and 0.03 percent ...
Saturday, 01 June 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET FOR S7 AND S8 SECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freights are remains weak week ended 31 May 2013, as BDI fell 2.05 pct and closed at 809 points on 31 May 2013.
The Cape ...
Friday, 31 May 13
US PRODUCED 18.5 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL W/E 25 MAY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 30 May 13
HANDY: RBCT ROUND WAS AROUND USD 9K + 300 BB - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
THE Atlantic market remained flat. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market remained quiet with no ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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