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Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA


COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating natural gas-fired generators fell below the cost of operating coal-fired generators in some regions, changing the least-cost dispatch ordering of available units, according to EIA.

EIA, said in its recent analysis, in 2012, the US average per-megawatt hour costs for producing electricity from coal steam plants and natural gas combined-cycle plants were nearly equal.

According to EIA, in tChe Reference case forecast, natural gas plants begin to lose competitive advantage over time as natural gas prices increase relative to coal prices. Because fuel prices vary by region and because considerable variation in efficiencies exists across the fleets of both coal-fired plants and combined-cycle plants, continued competition for dispatch between coal and natural gas is expected, even in the Reference case.

EIA further said in its analysis, the coal and natural gas shares of total electricity generation vary widely across the alternative cases. The coal share of total generation varies from 28% to 40% in 2040, and the natural gas share varies from 18% to 42%. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, natural gas becomes the dominant generation fuel after 2015, and its share of total generation is 42% in 2040.

There is significant uncertainty about future coal and natural gas prices. Higher coal prices or lower natural gas prices give natural gas combined-cycle plants more opportunities to displace coal-fired generators. In Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2013), for both the High Coal Cost case and the High Oil and Gas Resource case (characterized by low natural gas prices), average natural gas combined-cycle units are close to or more economical than average coal steam turbines.

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