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Sunday, 24 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS OFFER ROOM FOR RESTRAINED OPTIMISM SAYS SHIP OWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In its announcement regarding its annual performance, ship owner Frontline offered some useful insight on the future prospects of both the dry bulk and tanker market segments. In the dry bulk market, there's room for optimism as a result of an expected sharp decline of newbuilding deliveries over the next two years. "With the same delivery ratio we have experienced over the last three years approximately 60 million dwt should be delivered this year, while the order book for 2014 is 25 million dwt for the entire dry bulk sector" Frontline said.
According to the company's announcement, dry bulk transportation increased by around seven percent in 2012, however, due to the high number of new vessels entering the market, fleet utilization decreased. Given a net fleet growth of approximately 11 percent, the estimated utilization of the dry bulk fleet was on average 83 percent in 2012. Consequently spot earnings were low. The capesize and panamax segments both earned on average approximately $7,650 per day according to The Baltic Exchange. Around 220 capesizes and 375 panamaxes were delivered in 2012, still this was 30 percent lower than the official order book at the beginning of the year. At the same time approximately 90 capesizes and 135 panamaxes were sold for scrap. For the dry bulk fleet as a whole 35 million dwt were scrapped against 95 million dwt of deliveries.
Moving on to the more positive prospects, Frontline noted that "the low spot market presently experienced and relatively high scrap prices should encourage more scrapping. Most forecasters are expecting scrapping to remain at similar levels as last year and consequently net fleet growth could be as low as five percent during 2013. The steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for almost 70 percent of dry bulk transportation. For several years the importance of increased steel production and energy consumption in China and the increased dependence of this country for the dry bulk market have been well known. Also in 2012 iron ore and coal imports showed a remarkable growth. Iron ore increased by around eight percent while coal imports increased by almost 30 percent year on year. This was in spite of a much slower growth in steel and energy consumption (2 percent and 3.4 percent respectively)" said Frontline.
It added that "there are a few factors which make most analysts fairly optimistic for dry bulk demand growth going forward. Quality of Chinese domestic iron ore production is on a steady declining trend. Since 2007 China has invested roughly $85 billion in iron ore mining. Over the same period investments per effective ton iron ore produced has increased from $15 per ton in 2007 to $60 per ton in 2012. Adjusting for falling Fe content, effective iron ore production in 2012 is broadly at the same level as in 2007. Even in a modest steel growth scenario for China most forecasters believe in a continued strong growth in iron ore imports. According to Fearnleys the Capesize fleet (150-200' dwt) totaled 1022 vessels at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, an increase of 3 vessels from the previous quarter. The order book counted 94 vessels at the end of the fourth quarter compared to 106 vessels the previous quarter, representing 9.2 percent of the Capesize fleet" the ship owner concluded.
In the crude tanker market, Frontline noted that "current market forward rates are approximately $12,000 per day in the first quarter of 2013. Bunkers at Fujairah averaged $615/mt in the fourth quarter of 2012 compared to $650/mt in the third quarter of 2012. Bunker prices varied between a low of $593/mt on November 5th and a high of $655/mt on October 1st. The International Energy Agency's ("IEA") February 2013 report stated an OPEC oil production, including Iraq, of 30.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in Q4. This was a decrease of 0.5 mb/d compared to the third quarter of 2012, due to lower Saudi Arabian production in November and December. The IEA estimates that world oil demand averaged 91.0 mb/d in the fourth quarter of 2012, which is an increase of 0.8 mb/d compared to previous quarter and the IEA estimates that world oil demand averaged approximately 89.8 mb/d in 2012, representing an increase of 1.1 percent or 1.0 mb/d from 2011. 2013 demand is expected to be 90.7 mb/d.
The VLCC fleet totalled 622 vessels at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 617 vessels at the end of the previous quarter. 11 VLCCs were delivered during the quarter, six were removed. The order book counted 81 vessels at the end of the fourth quarter, down from 91 orders from the previous quarter. The current order book represents approximately 13 percent of the VLCC fleet. According to Fearnleys, the single hull fleet is 17 vessels, five less than last quarter.
The Suezmax fleet counts 468 vessels at the end of the fourth quarter, up from 462 vessels at the end of the previous quarter. 14 vessels were delivered during the quarter whilst eight were removed. The order book counted 72 vessels at the end of the fourth quarter, which represents 15 percent of the total fleet. According to Fearnley's, the single hull fleet has been reduced from nine to five vessels" it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 19 April 13
FIRST QUARTER OF 2013 PROVEN A POSITIVE SURPRISE FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite ominous predictions regarding the negative performance of the dry bulk market during the – traditionally weak anyway – first qua ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
HANDY: STABLE ; PANAMAX: BUSY WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets remain stable in this week. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 12k. The Pacific market is bit f ...
Thursday, 18 April 13
FEATURE: PREDICTING THE FUTURE - AND THE PAST - BIMCO
It’s not predicting the future that is problematical, it’s the realisation that you have to relive the past again and again when you fai ...
Wednesday, 17 April 13
INDONESIA SHIPPED 80 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST QUARTER - COAL DIRECTOR
COALspot.com - Indonesia has exported around 80 million tons of coal including power plant coal in first three months of this year.
Speaking on t ...
Tuesday, 16 April 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 20.87 PER CENT ON WEEK TO 3.07 MMT
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,077,431 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 15 April 2013, Newca ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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