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Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as attractive. But is this really the case, when taking into account other factors, like for instance freight rates? VesselsValue's Adrian Economakis, Strategy Director with the company describes the current and future trends of the ship valuation market. VesselsValue' service has been established as a leading tool among banks, ship onwers and investors in the maritime industry, seeking accurate valuations of various types of vessels.
During the past couple of years, we've seen ship values plunging across the board, as a result of the economical and shipping crisis. Based on your data, could you provide us with some info on the ship types which have been affected the most?
Since 1st Jan 2007, worst performing sectors in terms of asset price depreciation have been the large bulkers. For example, 5 year old Capes are currently at about 30% of their January 2007 value and less than 20% of their mid 2008 peak value. For example, a 5 year old 180k dwt Japanese/Korean built Cape is currently worth around usd 31.2m, while in August 2008 a 5 year old Cape was worth usd 164m and in Jan 2007 was worth usd 89m.
In contrast, of the sectors we currently cover, the best performing has been LNG closely followed by LPG. For example, a resale large LNG vessel (160k cbm) is currently worth about USD 205m while in August 2008 was worth about USD 195m and in Jan 2007 was worth USD 207m (i.e. there a very small decline (c3%) since 2007 and a small increase since summer 2008). This is drastically different to the huge drop in values experienced across the tank, bulk and container sectors.
Do you believe that current market valuations are really that attractive, when adding to the equation, the factor of low freight rates and oversupply of tonnage?
Prices across most of the traditional tank, bulk, container sectors are certainly cheap but this does not necessarily mean attractive. It really depends on your appetite for risk, your view on the future growth of international trade vs growth of the fleet and your investment timeframe.
The issue with buying “cheap” vessels is that they are cheap for a reason, notably due to the low earnings they currently achieve, poor expectations for the future and the current high cost of finance.
Unsurprisingly, the cheapest vessels are in sectors with the worst current earnings and the largest relative orderbooks. For example; Capes, Panamax bulkers, VLCC’s and some of the other larger types have recently had extended periods with earnings at or below their operating cost, resulting in an operating loss even before capital costs and overheads are taken into account. This effectively means that you can buy such a vessel at a cheap price but you will have to support the investment until the earnings improve significantly. Therefore, there is a significant risk in buying cheap vessels at this time in the market, but also the potential for significant gains in the medium to long run if earnings improve.
The sectors with the highest potential for improved earnings are those that have the highest potential for demand growth and lowest potential for fleet growth. In terms of demand, analysis needs to be done on a sector by sector basis, but it essentially depends on growth in the world economy and for the wet and gas sectors, the changing trends of energy demand and production. For example, forecasts of the growth in crude ton miles are currently rather conservative due to the growth in the demand and supply of Gas as an energy source. Also, the gradual movement of refineries to the east is believed to reduce the ton miles of crude and increase ton miles of products. In terms of vessel supply, it really depends on the relative size of the current orderbook and the capacity for new orders in the future. Generally, the more specialized the vessel type, the lower the capacity for future supply. However, these perceptions of demand and supply fundamentals are in many ways already priced into the market which is why we have seen the gas, offshore and to a lesser extent the chemical and product tanker sectors perform significantly better than the traditional crude, bulk and container sectors.
Saying all of this, the only thing that can be said for sure about the shipping market is that the future is unknown. There are many factors that could cause a sudden increase in global demand that could quickly make current prices seem incredibly attractive (and vica versa)
How do you expect the market to behave in the coming months? Do you think that ship prices will continue to fall in the near future?
It really depends on the sector. We continue to see downward pressure in the container sectors with the continuing troubles of the German KG’s. In contrast, we have seen a recent flattening of values and decline in volatility in the Bulk and Tank sectors following the steep drop over the last few years. The bright spark of the market has been the gas ships (LNG & LPG) which have maintained strong values and good earnings. In the near future, we expect this trend to continue, although we hope to see an improvement in product tanker values as their earnings have been pretty strong over the last 6 months or so.
Additionally, it depends on the age and design of the vessels. There is definitely a preference for new, eco designed vessels. We believe these will hold up their values better than the older less efficient vessels that are generally attracting bargain prices
Which was the driving force behind the spawning of Vessels Value?
Our CEO, Richard Rivlin was the real driving force behind the development of VesselsValue. After many years of working at the top of the S&P market, he identified the need for instant and accurate vessel valuation and supporting market intelligence. This need has grown significantly with the recent difficulties of the market. Banks, funds and increasingly owners have realized the huge benefits of having an objective and daily updated view of asset values and market intelligence.
What types of services do you provide?
-- Instant valuations for actual vessels, fleet and portfolios – updated and recalculated daily
-- Daily historical values, time series and excel exports
-- Transactions and vessel specifications
-- Fleet statistics
-- Advanced vessel search functionality
-- Portfolios and automated alerts
What types of ships are included in the valuations that you offer?
Types of ships currently valued:
-- Tankers over 29,500 dwt
-- Bulkers over 20,000 dwt,
-- Containers over 500 teu,
-- LNG & LPG vessels over 100 cbm in size
Shortly, the service will also cover the smaller vessel sizes and offshore.
Which are your main clients?
The main 3 client types are banks, investment funds and shipowners. We also provide our services to commodity & oil majors, brokers, class societies, insurers and lawyers. We currently have around 80 clients on annual subscriptions to our service.
As would be expected, our client base is spread around the world with the largest concentrations in London, New York, Tokyo, Seoul, Athens, Hamburg, Hong Kong and Singapore.
How do you ensure that the ship prices you offer are accurately reflecting current market conditions?
We constantly test the accuracy of our valuations by comparing our values the day before each clean sale and the sale price. We also are constantly analyzing values across the different sectors to make sure are in line with current ongoing negotiations.
Our accuracy level is published monthly on our website.
Are you planning on the introduction of new ship types, to be added in the valuations you provide?
Yes, as per above, we are extending to sub handy/feedermax vessels and offshore types of vessels.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Sunday, 20 January 13
S7 & S8 ROUTE FREIGHT TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with all the indices BDI up by 9.21 pct closing at 837 points. The Cape index was also sharply u ...
Friday, 18 January 13
NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD. TO ACQUIRE TWO COAL PROPERTIES WITH ESTIMATED COAL RESERVES OF 18.6 MMT & 143.1 MMT
NewLead Holdings Ltd. Announces Signing Agreement to Acquire Properties with Estimated Coal Reserves of 18.6 Million Tons; Signing Agreement to Acqu ...
Friday, 18 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON THE RISE, ON STRONG DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE VESSELS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has continued its climbing trend yesterday, as the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 39 points to 820. ...
Friday, 18 January 13
CAPESIZE : SIGNALS ARE MIXED BUT THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS POSITIVE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market remained stable with USG-Feast fixed around USD 17k, according to fearnleys’s weekly report.
Continent / Medite ...
Tuesday, 15 January 13
GRANT SMITH APPOINTED GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR OF BRAEMAR ADJUSTING
The Board of Braemar Adjusting is delighted to announce the appointment of Grant Smith as Group Managing Director of the company with immediate effe ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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