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Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as attractive. But is this really the case, when taking into account other factors, like for instance freight rates? VesselsValue's Adrian Economakis, Strategy Director with the company describes the current and future trends of the ship valuation market. VesselsValue' service has been established as a leading tool among banks, ship onwers and investors in the maritime industry, seeking accurate valuations of various types of vessels.
During the past couple of years, we've seen ship values plunging across the board, as a result of the economical and shipping crisis. Based on your data, could you provide us with some info on the ship types which have been affected the most?
Since 1st Jan 2007, worst performing sectors in terms of asset price depreciation have been the large bulkers. For example, 5 year old Capes are currently at about 30% of their January 2007 value and less than 20% of their mid 2008 peak value. For example, a 5 year old 180k dwt Japanese/Korean built Cape is currently worth around usd 31.2m, while in August 2008 a 5 year old Cape was worth usd 164m and in Jan 2007 was worth usd 89m.
In contrast, of the sectors we currently cover, the best performing has been LNG closely followed by LPG. For example, a resale large LNG vessel (160k cbm) is currently worth about USD 205m while in August 2008 was worth about USD 195m and in Jan 2007 was worth USD 207m (i.e. there a very small decline (c3%) since 2007 and a small increase since summer 2008). This is drastically different to the huge drop in values experienced across the tank, bulk and container sectors.
Do you believe that current market valuations are really that attractive, when adding to the equation, the factor of low freight rates and oversupply of tonnage?
Prices across most of the traditional tank, bulk, container sectors are certainly cheap but this does not necessarily mean attractive. It really depends on your appetite for risk, your view on the future growth of international trade vs growth of the fleet and your investment timeframe.
The issue with buying “cheap” vessels is that they are cheap for a reason, notably due to the low earnings they currently achieve, poor expectations for the future and the current high cost of finance.
Unsurprisingly, the cheapest vessels are in sectors with the worst current earnings and the largest relative orderbooks. For example; Capes, Panamax bulkers, VLCC’s and some of the other larger types have recently had extended periods with earnings at or below their operating cost, resulting in an operating loss even before capital costs and overheads are taken into account. This effectively means that you can buy such a vessel at a cheap price but you will have to support the investment until the earnings improve significantly. Therefore, there is a significant risk in buying cheap vessels at this time in the market, but also the potential for significant gains in the medium to long run if earnings improve.
The sectors with the highest potential for improved earnings are those that have the highest potential for demand growth and lowest potential for fleet growth. In terms of demand, analysis needs to be done on a sector by sector basis, but it essentially depends on growth in the world economy and for the wet and gas sectors, the changing trends of energy demand and production. For example, forecasts of the growth in crude ton miles are currently rather conservative due to the growth in the demand and supply of Gas as an energy source. Also, the gradual movement of refineries to the east is believed to reduce the ton miles of crude and increase ton miles of products. In terms of vessel supply, it really depends on the relative size of the current orderbook and the capacity for new orders in the future. Generally, the more specialized the vessel type, the lower the capacity for future supply. However, these perceptions of demand and supply fundamentals are in many ways already priced into the market which is why we have seen the gas, offshore and to a lesser extent the chemical and product tanker sectors perform significantly better than the traditional crude, bulk and container sectors.
Saying all of this, the only thing that can be said for sure about the shipping market is that the future is unknown. There are many factors that could cause a sudden increase in global demand that could quickly make current prices seem incredibly attractive (and vica versa)
How do you expect the market to behave in the coming months? Do you think that ship prices will continue to fall in the near future?
It really depends on the sector. We continue to see downward pressure in the container sectors with the continuing troubles of the German KG’s. In contrast, we have seen a recent flattening of values and decline in volatility in the Bulk and Tank sectors following the steep drop over the last few years. The bright spark of the market has been the gas ships (LNG & LPG) which have maintained strong values and good earnings. In the near future, we expect this trend to continue, although we hope to see an improvement in product tanker values as their earnings have been pretty strong over the last 6 months or so.
Additionally, it depends on the age and design of the vessels. There is definitely a preference for new, eco designed vessels. We believe these will hold up their values better than the older less efficient vessels that are generally attracting bargain prices
Which was the driving force behind the spawning of Vessels Value?
Our CEO, Richard Rivlin was the real driving force behind the development of VesselsValue. After many years of working at the top of the S&P market, he identified the need for instant and accurate vessel valuation and supporting market intelligence. This need has grown significantly with the recent difficulties of the market. Banks, funds and increasingly owners have realized the huge benefits of having an objective and daily updated view of asset values and market intelligence.
What types of services do you provide?
-- Instant valuations for actual vessels, fleet and portfolios – updated and recalculated daily
-- Daily historical values, time series and excel exports
-- Transactions and vessel specifications
-- Fleet statistics
-- Advanced vessel search functionality
-- Portfolios and automated alerts
What types of ships are included in the valuations that you offer?
Types of ships currently valued:
-- Tankers over 29,500 dwt
-- Bulkers over 20,000 dwt,
-- Containers over 500 teu,
-- LNG & LPG vessels over 100 cbm in size
Shortly, the service will also cover the smaller vessel sizes and offshore.
Which are your main clients?
The main 3 client types are banks, investment funds and shipowners. We also provide our services to commodity & oil majors, brokers, class societies, insurers and lawyers. We currently have around 80 clients on annual subscriptions to our service.
As would be expected, our client base is spread around the world with the largest concentrations in London, New York, Tokyo, Seoul, Athens, Hamburg, Hong Kong and Singapore.
How do you ensure that the ship prices you offer are accurately reflecting current market conditions?
We constantly test the accuracy of our valuations by comparing our values the day before each clean sale and the sale price. We also are constantly analyzing values across the different sectors to make sure are in line with current ongoing negotiations.
Our accuracy level is published monthly on our website.
Are you planning on the introduction of new ship types, to be added in the valuations you provide?
Yes, as per above, we are extending to sub handy/feedermax vessels and offshore types of vessels.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Roth ...
Tuesday, 19 February 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 38.65 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 1,820,559 MT of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 18 February 2013, Newc ...
Monday, 18 February 13
78.75 MILLION TONS OF COAL RESERVES ARE NEWLY PROVEN IN WUGANG HUNAN PROVINCE
COALspot.com - Recently, Wugang City, known as the CHINA hundred key coal producing cities, achieved new breakthroughs in coal exploration: deep coa ...
Sunday, 17 February 13
STEEL DEMAND WILL HELP TO PUSH UP FREIGHT RATES - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This freight market has been fairly steady week ended 15 February 2013.
The BDI was slightly up by 0.67 pct closing at 753 points ...
Friday, 15 February 13
2ND ANNUAL INDONESIA MINING 2013 CONFERENCE
Bringing Indonesia's Mining Stakeholders Together Towards Improving Mining Investment Climate & Operations
Following the success of th ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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