We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as attractive. But is this really the case, when taking into account other factors, like for instance freight rates? VesselsValue's Adrian Economakis, Strategy Director with the company describes the current and future trends of the ship valuation market. VesselsValue' service has been established as a leading tool among banks, ship onwers and investors in the maritime industry, seeking accurate valuations of various types of vessels.
During the past couple of years, we've seen ship values plunging across the board, as a result of the economical and shipping crisis. Based on your data, could you provide us with some info on the ship types which have been affected the most?
Since 1st Jan 2007, worst performing sectors in terms of asset price depreciation have been the large bulkers. For example, 5 year old Capes are currently at about 30% of their January 2007 value and less than 20% of their mid 2008 peak value. For example, a 5 year old 180k dwt Japanese/Korean built Cape is currently worth around usd 31.2m, while in August 2008 a 5 year old Cape was worth usd 164m and in Jan 2007 was worth usd 89m.
In contrast, of the sectors we currently cover, the best performing has been LNG closely followed by LPG. For example, a resale large LNG vessel (160k cbm) is currently worth about USD 205m while in August 2008 was worth about USD 195m and in Jan 2007 was worth USD 207m (i.e. there a very small decline (c3%) since 2007 and a small increase since summer 2008). This is drastically different to the huge drop in values experienced across the tank, bulk and container sectors.
Do you believe that current market valuations are really that attractive, when adding to the equation, the factor of low freight rates and oversupply of tonnage?
Prices across most of the traditional tank, bulk, container sectors are certainly cheap but this does not necessarily mean attractive. It really depends on your appetite for risk, your view on the future growth of international trade vs growth of the fleet and your investment timeframe.
The issue with buying “cheap” vessels is that they are cheap for a reason, notably due to the low earnings they currently achieve, poor expectations for the future and the current high cost of finance.
Unsurprisingly, the cheapest vessels are in sectors with the worst current earnings and the largest relative orderbooks. For example; Capes, Panamax bulkers, VLCC’s and some of the other larger types have recently had extended periods with earnings at or below their operating cost, resulting in an operating loss even before capital costs and overheads are taken into account. This effectively means that you can buy such a vessel at a cheap price but you will have to support the investment until the earnings improve significantly. Therefore, there is a significant risk in buying cheap vessels at this time in the market, but also the potential for significant gains in the medium to long run if earnings improve.
The sectors with the highest potential for improved earnings are those that have the highest potential for demand growth and lowest potential for fleet growth. In terms of demand, analysis needs to be done on a sector by sector basis, but it essentially depends on growth in the world economy and for the wet and gas sectors, the changing trends of energy demand and production. For example, forecasts of the growth in crude ton miles are currently rather conservative due to the growth in the demand and supply of Gas as an energy source. Also, the gradual movement of refineries to the east is believed to reduce the ton miles of crude and increase ton miles of products. In terms of vessel supply, it really depends on the relative size of the current orderbook and the capacity for new orders in the future. Generally, the more specialized the vessel type, the lower the capacity for future supply. However, these perceptions of demand and supply fundamentals are in many ways already priced into the market which is why we have seen the gas, offshore and to a lesser extent the chemical and product tanker sectors perform significantly better than the traditional crude, bulk and container sectors.
Saying all of this, the only thing that can be said for sure about the shipping market is that the future is unknown. There are many factors that could cause a sudden increase in global demand that could quickly make current prices seem incredibly attractive (and vica versa)
How do you expect the market to behave in the coming months? Do you think that ship prices will continue to fall in the near future?
It really depends on the sector. We continue to see downward pressure in the container sectors with the continuing troubles of the German KG’s. In contrast, we have seen a recent flattening of values and decline in volatility in the Bulk and Tank sectors following the steep drop over the last few years. The bright spark of the market has been the gas ships (LNG & LPG) which have maintained strong values and good earnings. In the near future, we expect this trend to continue, although we hope to see an improvement in product tanker values as their earnings have been pretty strong over the last 6 months or so.
Additionally, it depends on the age and design of the vessels. There is definitely a preference for new, eco designed vessels. We believe these will hold up their values better than the older less efficient vessels that are generally attracting bargain prices
Which was the driving force behind the spawning of Vessels Value?
Our CEO, Richard Rivlin was the real driving force behind the development of VesselsValue. After many years of working at the top of the S&P market, he identified the need for instant and accurate vessel valuation and supporting market intelligence. This need has grown significantly with the recent difficulties of the market. Banks, funds and increasingly owners have realized the huge benefits of having an objective and daily updated view of asset values and market intelligence.
What types of services do you provide?
-- Instant valuations for actual vessels, fleet and portfolios – updated and recalculated daily
-- Daily historical values, time series and excel exports
-- Transactions and vessel specifications
-- Fleet statistics
-- Advanced vessel search functionality
-- Portfolios and automated alerts
What types of ships are included in the valuations that you offer?
Types of ships currently valued:
-- Tankers over 29,500 dwt
-- Bulkers over 20,000 dwt,
-- Containers over 500 teu,
-- LNG & LPG vessels over 100 cbm in size
Shortly, the service will also cover the smaller vessel sizes and offshore.
Which are your main clients?
The main 3 client types are banks, investment funds and shipowners. We also provide our services to commodity & oil majors, brokers, class societies, insurers and lawyers. We currently have around 80 clients on annual subscriptions to our service.
As would be expected, our client base is spread around the world with the largest concentrations in London, New York, Tokyo, Seoul, Athens, Hamburg, Hong Kong and Singapore.
How do you ensure that the ship prices you offer are accurately reflecting current market conditions?
We constantly test the accuracy of our valuations by comparing our values the day before each clean sale and the sale price. We also are constantly analyzing values across the different sectors to make sure are in line with current ongoing negotiations.
Our accuracy level is published monthly on our website.
Are you planning on the introduction of new ship types, to be added in the valuations you provide?
Yes, as per above, we are extending to sub handy/feedermax vessels and offshore types of vessels.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 28 April 13
PANAMAX FREIGHT COULD BE SOFT NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This BDI closed slightly lower at 871 points (down by 1.91 pct) mainly due to drop in the Panamax index by almost 10 pct.
Th ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
HANDY : SLIDING ; PANAMAX : POSITIVE ; CAPESIZE : STILL ON ITS KNEES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic markets started sliding with no fresh cargoes seen in the market. The USG-Feast was at USD 18k and Black sea-Feast was at USD 11 ...
Saturday, 27 April 13
2ND CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Press Release - 2nd China International Shale Gas Summit, 10-13 September 2013 | Chengdu, China
*The largest annual event for the shale gas indus ...
Friday, 26 April 13
LIMA SUMMIT IN JULY TO HIGHLIGHT LATIN AMERICAN MINING POTENTIAL
COALspot.com - Latin American mining industry officials and their private sector counterparts will be gathering in Lima, Peru on July 1-2 for the La ...
Wednesday, 24 April 13
FUTURE US POWER MARKET SHARES OF COAL, NATURAL GAS GENERATORS DEPEND ON RELATIVE FUEL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com - In recent years, in US, natural gas competed more effectively with coal as a fuel for electricity generation as the cost of operating ...
|
|
|
Showing 4301 to 4305 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
|
| |
| |
|
