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Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a result, the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index rose again yesterday by 14 points, to reach 834, with all major ship types gaining on the day. Still, according to market analysts and shipbrokers, this current trend isn't set to continue at least for the next few months. According to them, it's only a matter of time before oversupply catches up and plagues freight rates once more. According to market-outlook comments by Clarkson Plc., issued yesterday, "the dry bulk market will continue to struggle with the impact of oversupply. However, planned increasing in cargo volumes and continued growth in demand is fundamental to our long-term belief in this sector.”

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Fearnleys commented on the Capesize market that "this week saw the market continue to gradually slide, with the continuing strike in Columbia, and low volumes out of Brazil keeping tonne mile demand and therefore rates depressed. However, at the time of writing, bid/offer for Tubarao/China is at a slightly healthier 17.50/17.75. West Australia resumed operations after the cyclone, and the prevailing rate this week has been around USD 7.20. This week saw a significant period deal concluded, with a ship with good ´eco´ consumptions fixed for 21-27 months at a firmer USD 13500 per day, arguably setting a benchmark for the market which will be interesting follow in the coming months" it said.

Meanwhile, "the Panamax market continued its positive trend from last week with firming rates in both hemispheres. The main driver is the ECSA grain season which attract most owners willing trip east. Good rates are being achived and a Fhaul with Cont delivery is being fixed in region of USD 17-18k depending on specs. More coal cargoes from USEC are being quoted in the market and TArv´s are being paid in region of USD 9k or closer to 10k for the shorter runs not involving breach of INL. In the Pacific we are also facing a rate increase with more cargoes in the market in addition to the competing grain market attracting ows. We see Pac rounds now being fixed at ard USD 10k. The period market has also seen an increase in activity with both shorter and longer period being concluded" Fearnleys noted.

In a separate report earlier in the week, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that freight rates for dry bulk carriers will show a "meaningful increase" by 2015, as demand for seaborne commodities expands amid slowing fleet growth. According to the report, "we see a major shift in the sector next year, as demand growth once again outpaces fleet capacity additions and the oversupply in the market starts to shrink. Yet, due to the magnitude of excess supply over demand, we believe a sustained recovery in bulk freight prices will take longer to materialize,” said BoFAML.

Similarly, DVB Bank noted that ship rates will remain under pressure, as a result of a huge oversupply of vessels, expected to peak this year. The vessel glut is so substantial that even a 39% rise in iron ore cargoes over the next three years, will fail to curb it. According to DVB, annual shipments of iron ore will rise to 1.5 billion metric tons in 2015 from last year’s 1.08 billion tons. Coal cargoes will increase 17 percent over the same period to 1.3 billion tons, the report showed.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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