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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Saturday, 12 January 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.32 percent WoW but CFR South China coal ship ...
Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT
COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that, on US and China&rsquo ...
Friday, 11 January 13
HBA HAS JUMPED BY US$ 5.80 PMT IN JANUARY 2013
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government has declared bench mark price for coal higher than December price. The monthly coal reference price f ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
PANAMAX : SOME GLIMMERS OF HOPE MID WEEK - FEARNLEYS
According to Fearnley’s weekly report, the Atlantic handy market is stable with rates around USD 11k for Cont-Feast and USD 17k bss USG/Feast. ...
Thursday, 10 January 13
DRY BULK PANAMAX MARKET HEAVILY OVERSUPPLIED, UNLIKELY TO FIND SUPPORT IN 2013 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite positive indication for a significant surge of dry bulk demand this year, the oversupply problems of the market, will continue to weigh heav ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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