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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Sunday, 27 January 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS: WEAK
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q1’ 2013 delivery has gained 0.31 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 27 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET: FLAT TO SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was soft and all the indices were down except for handy size.
The BDI was down 4.66 pct closing at 798 points.. ...
Friday, 25 January 13
BOTSWANA GOVERNMENT GRANTS COAL LICENSES TO A-CAP RESOURCES LIMITED
A-Cap Resources Limited has announced that it has been granted coal rights within its Bolau tenements which sit next to the Sese Coal and Power Proj ...
Friday, 25 January 13
SMALL ROOM FOR OPTIMISM FOR THE PROSPECTS OF THE DRY BULK MARKET AS NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market didn't manage to post a rebound during the past year, quite the opposite, as a fast fleet growth and slow ...
Thursday, 24 January 13
INDO - INDIA NOW AT APS $ 8K + BB USD 90000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market remains stable as supply of tonnage is still in excess of demand. USG- Far east fixed at $18k and CONT-FEAST at $ 11k. Pa ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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