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Wednesday, 20 February 13
BAKRIE GROUP LOOKS TO HAVE A CLEAR UPPER HAND - LUCKY ARIESANDI, CFA
 The Bakrie-Rothschild saga is entering its final stage, with Bumi Plc (BUMI LN)’s holders to convene on 21 Feb at 11am GMT to vote on Nat Rothschild’s proposal to oust the majority of Bumi Plc’s current Board of Directors and replace them with his appointees. The proposal needs a simple majority to pass, said Lucky Ariesandi, CFA, an analyst from PT Kim Eng Securities.
Bakrie group looks to have a clear upper hand
Lucky Ariesandi further said in his analysis, Bakrie & Borneo (BB) has 30% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc. Bukit Mutiara/Recapital, considered to be related to BB, owned a 13.1% stake in Bumi Plc but divested its shares just before the showdown. The new buyers too, however, look closely related to BB. Harry Tanoe (who bought 1.7% of Bumi Plc) recently acquired Bakrie’s infrastructure business and is reported to be bidding for Bakrie’s 51% stake in Visi Media (VIVA IJ) to further cement his grip on Indonesia’s media business. Avenue Capital (7.6%) has a longstanding cordial relationship with Bakrie, and currently owns an 11.2% stake in Bakrieland (ELTY IJ). Argyle Street Management (4.2%) is the only new buyer without a track record of working with the Bakrie family. All in all, it appears that BB will be able to secure atleast 39-40% of the voting rights in the upcoming Bumi plc’s EGM. Note that the buyers of Recapital’s stake in Bumi Plc can cast their votes if registration is completed 48 hours before the meeting.
Rothschild’s mission impossible
Nat Rothschild, through NR Investment, owns 14.8% of the voting rights in Bumi Plc, based on the latest filings provided by Bloomberg. Aside from his own shares, NR claims to have the support of Abu Dhabi Investment (4.2%), Schroder (3.5%), and Standard Life (2.1%). This takes his tally to around 25% of the voting rights. Other large shareholders have not publicly announced how they would cast their vote, including Blackrock (6.2%), St James Master Fund (5.6%), and Taube Hodson (4.2%). We think it is highly unlikely NR can muster enough support to advance his proposal, said Lucky Ariesandi.
What will happen if Rothschild wins the fight?
He further said, OJK, Indonesia’s financial services authority, has announced that it might consider a radical change in the BoD of Bumi Plc a change of ownership, hence triggering a mandatory general offer (GO) for Berau Coal (BRAU IJ). As NR is not actually offering to buy Berau Coal, the general offer will be done at a Berau’s average trading price 90 days prior to the announcement of the takeover. This would imply a minimum GO price of IDR220/share. The authority might even require a GO for Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) although it remains a grey area until now as Bumi Plc controls less than 50% stake in BUMI IJ. If this should happen, the GO price for BUMI IJ should be around IDR650/share.
What will happen if BB wins the fight?
By winning, which translates into all of NR’s proposals failing to obtain majority votes, the board can continue with the separation of the Bakrie Group from Bumi Plc through a share swap of BB’s 23.8% ownership in Bumi Plc (with 30% voting interest) with Bumi Plc’s 10.3% stake in BUMI IJ, plus an additional USD278m in cash payments for Bumi Plc’s remaining 18.9% stake in BUMI IJ. This would not actually be a complete separation, as BB would still own a 25.1% stake in Bumi Plc after the share swap, via suspended voting shares. The future of BB’s remaining investment in the suspended voting shares remains unclear at this stage. But if the share swap goes through as planned, the suspended voting shares should become ordinary voting shares, as the voting interest of the group will fall to less than 30%, according to Lucky Ariesandi.
What is the value assigned to BUMI IJ and BRAU IJ in Bakrie’s proposal?
The value of BUMI IJ’s takeover by BB depends on the share price of Bumi Plc. Using Monday’s closing price of GBP 0.394 and Monday’s exchange rates of IDR 14,980/GBP and IDR 9,685/USD, BUMI IJ would be valued at IDR 1,002/share for the purposes of the takeover. Meanwhile, the proposal to take over 84.7% of Berau for USD 946m translates into an offer of IDR 310/share.
By: Lucky Ariesandi, CFA (this report is subject to KimEng’s disclaimer clause)
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Friday, 08 March 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A RISING TREND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has continued its rising pattern set after China opened up again for business, following the Asian New Year Holidays. As a resul ...
Thursday, 07 March 13
PANAMAX : POSITIVE TREND; CAPESIZE : GRADUALLY SLIDE - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic saw more cargoes than last week and rates ticking upwards. The USG-Feast was at USD 22k and Black sea-feast was at USD 12k. The ...
Tuesday, 05 March 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 20.77 PERCENT MORE COAL W/E 4 MARCH 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,631,562 MT of thermal and coking coal for a week ended 0700 hours 4 March 2013, Newcas ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL SWAPS; CHINA CONTRACTS FALL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 0.75 percent and CFR South China coal shipment&nbs ...
Sunday, 03 March 13
FREIGHT MARKET FROM INDONESIA EXPECTED TO BE FIRM - VISTAAR
COALspot.com – The freight market has been fairly firm this week except for cape size index.
The BDI was up by 4.64 points closing at 776 p ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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