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Thursday, 31 January 13
DRY BULK RATES ON A FALLING PATTERN DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The seasonal factor has emerged as the latest catalyst in determining the course of the dry bulk market, as the floods in eastern Australia, the biggest exporter of therma coal, has caused delays in many ports of the region. At the same time, earlier in the week, a similar pattern occurred in the ports of Western Australia, which are mainly dealing with iron ore cargoes. As a resutl, the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has been falling during the week, ending yesterday down by 12 points to 767 points. All submarkets were on the fall yesterday, with Capesize and Panamax vessels, typically used to transport iron ore and coal, facing the biggest losses. The Baltic Capesize Index was down to 1,477 points, while the Panamax Index was down to 690 points. Shipping analysts have also pointed out that during this first month of 2013, newbuilding deliveries have continued to hit the water, adding further pressure on dry bulk rates.

In its latest weekly report, commenting on the Capesize market, shipbroker Fearnley's noted that it was "another week of weak numbers in the Cape segment, with tonnage building in both basins on the back of relatively few FH or Pacific requirements, and the relentless rainfall in East Coast Australia raising yet more volume concerns. Whilst iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports remain low, the big Australian miners have been comparatively quiet in the spot market. However, at the time of writing, mid Feb West Australia/Qingdao positions were covered at a tick above USD 7 pmt. Iron ore and coal cargoes out of South Africa, both toward the continent and the Far East, have been actively fixed, however rates continue to decline, with USD 6.75 done for a Richards Bay/Rotterdam coal round. Whilst there was little period business reported this week, USD 9000 was achieved for 4-7 months, continuintrend of slightly firmer numbers appearing for period deals" it noted.

Meanwhile, in the Panamax market, Fearnley's said that "a growing list of open positions against a reduced number of fresh requirements is the overall tone causing a sliding trend in boht hemispheres. In the Atlantic there seems to be a mid-week floor arround 7.000 + 300 APS USG for trades to Cont/Med with a premium for INL breach, ice trading, dirty cargoes or poor redelivery. Fronthaul activity is limited still with growing expectations met by a growing number of ballasters heading for both USG and ECSA. 13.500 + 350 achievable bss APS or abt 7.000 DOP bss India/SEAsia delivery for ECSA rounds. As the tropical cyclone Oswald has caused force majeure conditions several places down under the overall activity looks to be further reduced by the coming Chinese New Year. Pacific rounds down to 4.000 or less mostly basis APS with a BB for carrying Indonesian coal. Period activity is modest with short period arround 7.000 with a forward curve moving sideways with marginal change" said Fearnley's in its report.

Finally, in the Handysize markets, it stated that "the Atlantic market remained stable with no significant movement in rates. Rates from USG to FEast were around USD 17k and Black sea to Feast about USD 9k. USG- Skaw-Passero rates are around USD 14k. The Pacific market getting softer and rates falling as compared to last week with less cargoes seen in market and holding on cargoes in anticipation that rates will get softer due to forthcoming Chinese New Year holidays. For indo-india, large eco supra now fixed at USD 8k for delivery Singapore. Nopac also fixed bss APS at USD 7000 + BB USD 325k. WCI -China rates around USD 8,000 and ECI- China around USD 5000. RBCT rv fixed at APS USD 9000 + BB USD 300k. Red sea fertilisers to india are mid teens. Not much activity seen on short period and rates around USD 8500 for large supra", it concluded.

It is worht noting that "the global dry bulk fleet will expand at double the pace of trade growth for a second year in 2013, according to Clarkson Plc. (CKN) Vessel supply will increase 8 percent as demand climbs 4 percent, Clarkson, the world’s biggest shipbroker, said in a report Jan. 25. That equates to a surplus of 411 Panamax-sized vessels, more than last year’s 404, it said in its note".
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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