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Saturday, 12 January 13
HIGHER COAL PRICES: SEASONAL EFFECT


COALspot.com : Bahana Securities, one of the leading securities in Indonesia, said in its latest coal outlook that,  on US and China’s moves to shale gas, we remain bearish on coal’s long term outlook. Coal counters’ 1M price outperformance’s are mainly on seasonal effect which raised global coal prices by some 16% from its bottom in November 2012.

The market was also buoyed by positive news from China, the world’s largest coal importer, which posted November coal import of 29m tons (+35% m-m and +31% y-y), the highest in the past 4 years. However, we believe conditions are temporary on winter restocking with coal prices to normalize in 2Q13.

Coal prices to normalize in 2Q13
Irwan Budiarto, an analyst from Bahana Securities commented on the recent report, historically, coal prices tend to move up in 4Q due to winter restocking activities, resulting in China’s coal imports being the highest in the last quarter of the year. However, setting aside the winter restocking factor, we believe that medium-term coal demand will not pick up in a meaningful manner as electricity demand from three big coal importers (approximately 40% of total global coal imports), namely China,  South Korea and Japan does not show any signs of improvement. 

We also note that historically coal prices in 4Q-1Q would usually increase by 2%-28% before normalizing in 2Q. Hence, as coal prices have risen 16% since early November 2012, we believe there is limited potential for further coal price strengthening, analyst said

Bahana maintains 2013 coal price assumption at USD82/ton (-15% y-y), given continued uncertainties in global outlook, temporary restocking condition, increasing coal output and US industrial users’ switch to shale gas.



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