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Saturday, 05 January 13
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2012 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
 Global Economy: Things will go up from here
The global economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than previous years. The slower economic development has been difficult for ship owners who, with a severe overhang of tonnage, have struggled with a depressed freight market since the start of the financial crisis back in 2008. The good news is that both GDP and world trade currently are expected to go up at 3.6% and 4.5% respectively in 2013, which may bring some relief to the shipping industry. The distribution of the global economic recovery will be a decisive factor in how the recovery is going to impact the different shipping segments.
During the second half of 2012, strong political will from the major economies introducing fiscal and monetary policies underpinned the upturn in economic development. However, many of the sustainable growth indicators remain weak, clearly reflecting the fragility in the financial markets. In China, the HSBC/ Markit Manufacturing PMI has been South of the threshold level of 50 throughout the year, indicating a slowdown. However, the November flash report gave rise to some optimism, probably spurred on by yet another economic stimulus. Meanwhile, the Eurozone continues to bear signs of a stand-still, as demand and consumer confidence remain very weak, but there are more positive signals coming from the US that expect a growth beyond 2% also next year.
BIMCO believes that 2013 will be the turning point on the macroeconomic scene. Our baseline scenario is that global GDP will grow stronger in 2013. This is founded in generally easier access to capital led by central banks, positive advocacy vis-à-vis policymakers in e.g. US, EU, Japan and China. This development is welcome and may well be the recipe to more effectively deal with the present challenges. Consumer confidence hinges on the employment situation and will be the catalyst supporting this development, creating demand for goods, housing and energy. In other words, the macroeconomic development should be a positive factor in the shipping markets in 2013, with a key risk being the fragile financial markets, fiscal consolidation in the advanced economies as well as a slowdown in some major emerging economies.
Supply: Overhang of tonnage is a major concern
The collapse of the financial markets in 2008 has taken its toll on ship owners who, in their predictions of a continued high growth in world trade back then, had ordered newbuildings at an unprecedented level. The effects of this overly-optimistic market outlook continue to haunt ship owners, who are trying their best to manage the overhang of tonnage by slow-steaming, idling and recycling. It will be some time before the fundamental supply and demand ratio is balanced. The fleet expansion during 2012 has not improved the situation, as the dry bulk fleet grew by 70 million DWT and the containership fleet by 1.1 million TEU. Fleet expansion in the tanker segments was more moderate, as the products fleet increased by a bit more than 2% and the crude oil fleet by 5%. Looking forward, BIMCO expects that the fleet will grow at a lower rate than the 2012 level. The containership fleet is expected to grow by 7%, the dry bulk fleet by 6%, the crude oil tanker fleet by 4.5% and finally, the product tanker segment is expected to have a judicious growth of 2% for 2013.
The buzzword of the newbuilding market is the so-called ECO-ships, offering potentially large fuel savings compared with the standard ship in the market. The jury is still out regarding the magnitude of the savings, but if the ships are as energy efficient as advertised by the yards, ECO-ships could be a sound business case for ship owners. The deciding factor will be fuel costs, which are not expected to decline. Many of the new ships, especially within the product tanker segment that have been contracted for since mid-2011, have been ordered with an ECO-design.
It is, however, important to emphasise that any major new influx of ships will only create further problems for the industry, considering the already heavy overhang of tonnage. The real challenge is how to optimise the energy efficiency of the current fleet, which age-wise is the youngest ever.
Dry Bulk: Demand is good but is it enough to save the day?
Coming into 2012, freight rates declined significantly and earnings dropped. The Capesize vessels were hurt the most, with freight rates falling below all other segments despite offering much higher cargo capacity. The dip is obviously a direct consequence of the massive overhang of tonnage, coupled with weaker demand.
Towards the end of 2012, demand for iron ore in particular picked up again, as China introduced another large stimulus package with focus on infrastructural developments. Even though this positively impacted the rates, the unsustainable low freight rate levels during most of 2012 proved only sufficient to cover operating expenses, but hardly any capital cost. Going forward, the economic development in China and India will spur demand for power generation, which will lead to increased imports of thermal coal next year. China is likely to import more iron ore in 2013, considering the infrastructure plan coupled with the falling quality of domestically mined iron ore which, all things being equal, will positively affect the demand for tonnage. The supply side is, however, likely to curb the freight rate upturn due to the significant oversupply in the Capesize and Panamax segments.
Tanker: All eyes on the US!
The world’s largest oil consumer, the US, might put downward pressure on seaborne demand in the coming years as the domestic production of oil and natural gas is expected to increase immensely, according to the International Energy Agency. Looking at imports, the extraction of oil sands in Canada means that more than a quarter of US crude oil imports come from their northern neighbour. This trend is unfortunate for the tanker shipping industry, as the large majority of these imports are transported via pipelines rather than tankers. Meanwhile, the shale gas adventures may prompt a shift in the energy mix, not only in US but also globally, towards more natural gas. The threats come on top of a weak crude tanker market, where freight rates this summer reached the lowest point since the miserable days of 2009.
In the oil product tankers sector, freight rates have been depressed throughout most of the year, with the summer months being the low point, but rate hikes during the Autumn and early Winter indicate that a slowly improving market may be in the making, potentially already next year. Things are stirring below the surface, as trade patterns are changing, with traditional importers becoming exporters, notably the US, and also in the spec-trade volumes are going higher.
Looking forward, the prospects of a big-scale North American oil and gas production may favour niche segments such as the LNG tankers outright. LNG tankers make substantial profits at the moment from the arbitrage opportunities arising from the difference in prices of natural gas across the globe. But it will take its toll on the crude and product tanker segments, unless the US significantly increases exports of these products.
Container: Is cascading the solution?
The first half of 2012 developed in the right direction for the liner trades, with rates from Far East to US West Coast rising to USD 2,600 per FEU in June, up from USD 1,800 per FEU in January. Comparably, rates on Far East to Northern Europe climbed from USD 750 per TEU in January to a peak of 1,900 per TEU in June. While the demand side was able to hold rates up in the trans-Pacific trade, rates to Northern Europe fell to touch USD 1,000 per TEU in November, as demand succumbed in the shadow of the Eurozone crisis.
Going forward, the liner segment is about to settle for lower growth rates than those that were once the norm. Globalisation is expected to continue as the main driver, but stronger intra-Asian demand rather than a speedy return to high demand from Europa and US is on the cards for the coming years.
We have seen a steady main trading lane cascading where the Far East – Europe container trade is now largely conducted by Ultra Large Container Vessels (ULCV), a fleet segment that has increased by a staggering 43% so far in 2012, with more to come in 2013. Some segments are being squeezed by the general economy of scale movement in this sector, notably the sub-3,000 TEUs that have accounted for 75% of the overall containership demolition, testifying a cascading to larger ships.
While voyage and operating expenses may just be covered at current rates, they are unfortunately insufficient to fully cover the cost of capital. In an effort to establish reasonable returns on investment, liner companies resort to deactivating routes, laying-up and demolishing tonnage extensively. Going forward, the route to and perspective of recovery will greatly depend on the container trade’s ability to balance the supply side to demand.
Source: Bimco
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Sunday, 06 January 13
FREIGHT MARKET REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY - VISTAAR
WISH YOU ALL HAPPY NEW YEAR
COALspot.com - The freight market remained fairly steady in spite of Christmas / New Year Holidays. The BDI was almos ...
Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during th ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL SWAPS CLOSED US$ 6.86 HIGHER FOR 2014 DELIVERY
COALspot.com - Swaps prices were changed positively for thermal coal for loading in the first quarter from Indonesia, according to SGX AsiaClear OTC ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
SUPRMAX FREIGHT RATE FROM RED SEA / INDIA IS AROUND MID TEENS - FEARNLEYS
Fearnleys in its weekly report said that, Indian market was very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate was hovering ...
Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mai ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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