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Friday, 04 January 13
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR DIRECTION IN FIRST TRADING DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS


The dry bulk market is actively looking for its footing at the start of the New Year, as charters have been scarce, as is usually the case during these days of each year. The industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by a couple of points to reach 700 points yesterday, virtually unchanged since the end of 2012. Still, a positive trend has been noted, as the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) was up by 17 points yesterday, reaching 1,254 points, while marginal increases were also noted in both the Supramax and the Handysize segments. The only exception so far has been the Panamax market, with the relative index losing 10 points during yesterday's session.

According to the latest weekly report from shipbroker Fearnley's, on the Capesize market, it noted that "with most major players physically and mentally on vacation, spot activity has been and is next to none for almost 2 weeks now. For Brazil in particular, prompt cargo stems have been extremely few and far between - with a resultant piling up of early tonnage in S.Africa and elsewhere, along with softening freight levels. With average daily earnings well below USD 5k and the whole Cape fleet already slow-steaming, idling is becoming an ever more realistic alternative. Period fixing has come to a complete halt - but is expected to resume at lower levels or indexed-linked as takers are still ready to pick the right ships and tonnage providers are faced with few alternatives" it said.

On the Panamax front, Fearnley's noted that "with Christmas holidays fresh in mind and a couple of days into 2013 the following may summarize the past week. The activity has been scarce but some business has been concluded. In the Atlantic; breaching of INL and trading to and from icebound ports has led to some high fixtures. Such trades apart, the TA market is slowly sliding. In the Pacific we see a similar but stronger tendency. Spot ships are forced to start ballasting or drop the anchor to wait for activity. We expect the coming week to be decisive in which direction the market is going, as several countries are still away for holidays".

Finally, commenting on the Handy markets, Fearnley's said that "the Indian market is very quiet in respect of export of iron ore. For Indo-India trip Supra rate is hovering between 11000/12000 bss passing Singapore and around USD 9000 for short period. Spmx freight rate from Red Sea/India is around mid teens" it concluded.

Meanwhile, according to a recent report from DVB Bank, as a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.

After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.

Meanwhile, in terms of newbuilding activity during the last week of 2012 as many as 23 ships were contracted, with STX securing 16 of these. According to Fearnley's the largest order was placed by BP Shipping of UK for three Suezmax´ and ten Aframax´ at STX Jinhae. Price reported to 50 mill USD and 60 mill USD respectively for the Aframax and the Suezmax vessels. STX has also secured two more 22,000 cbm LPG carriers from Ultranav of Chile, bringing the total order by Ultranav at STX to eight ships of this type. HHI has also secured LPG carrier order over the past week, as Tomza Group booked a VLGC for delivery July 2014 with price reported to 74 mill USD. The new VLGC design from HHI will be equipped with latest G-type main engine and eco hull form in order to save around 10 t/day of fuel compared to existing VLGCs" the shipbroker concluded.
Source:
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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