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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 19 March 13
SHIP PRICES COULD BE CLOSING IN TO REACH THEIR BOTTOM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
One of the latest developments in shipping asset prices has been the reluctance from shipyards to further reduce their price expectations to higher ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
A WEAK WEEK FOR SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q2’ 2013 delivery has lost 2.11 percent and CFR South China coal shipment ...
Sunday, 17 March 13
COAL FREIGHT RATES STEADY ON HIGHER DEMAND - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - This freight market continued to remain firm in all segments.
The BDI was up by 5.81 pct closing at 892 points. Cape index was up ...
Friday, 15 March 13
CHEAP SHIP VALUATIONS DON'T NECESSARILY MEAN ATTRACTIVE SAYS VESSELS VALUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
With ship prices plunging by double-digits in the past few years, many ship owners are pondering their next moves in a market often described as att ...
Thursday, 14 March 13
SUPRAMAX : INDO - INDIA TRIP RATE IS AROUND $10,000; SOUTH CHINA $9500 - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Indian market is still quiet in respect of export of iron ore. WC India market has improved with a few stems out of the MEG, WC India opening ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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