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Thursday, 03 January 13
DRY BULK DEMAND TO KEEP RISING IN 2013, DRY BULK SHIP PRICES TO KEEP FALLING SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 In a recent report on the future of the shipping markets, DVB bank said that dry bulk demand is expected to keep on growing in the coming years, mainly as a result of continued grwoth in emerging economies.According to the bank's analysis, dry bulk demand is expected to conclude 2012 with a rise of 4.1%, while the estimates for 2013 are looking for a further rise of 7.2%. Countries like India and China are expected to play a major role towards this development, with China's appetite for raw materials like iron ore and coal being among the main reasons for this. As a result of this codependence, should China's economy experience any slowdown, these projections of dry bulk demand growth will be impacted negatively.
In terms of ship values, DVB said that 2012 would close with average newbuilding prices posting a significant reduction over 2011 prices, while second hand values would post an even sharper decline. According to the analysis, vessels over 15 years old are the most vulnerable in terms of price reductions, since more and more newbuildings are entering the global fleet. Additionally, new regulations, like EEDI, will add to the pressure faced by older tonnage, as charterers will use these to bring down rates and consequently asset values, resulting in a two or even a multi-tiered market. As a result, the bank's analysts indicated that they don't expect the trend of falling newbuilding prices to end before 2014 kicks in, with huge oversupply still a dominating force in the dry bulk market.
As a result of the huge orderbook, freight rates are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2013. exactly how much will this pressure be, will depend on the way that the orderbook and deliveries progress during the year. In the worst case senario, rates could once again bottom out by the end of 2014, should the world economy be stabilised and avoid slipping into yet another period of recession. DVB advised shipowners to reduce contracting and increase scrapping activity, if they wish to keep earnings above operating expenses.
After all, the level of growth of the dry bulk fleet has been stellar, with record breaking newbuilding deliveries for every year since the start of 2009. According to the analysis, since October of 2011, the dry bulk fleet has increased by an impressive 75 million dwt or 758 vessels, representing a growth rate of 13%. Today, the orderbook stands at 130 million dwt, equating to about 20% of current fleet. "The orderbook for all Capesize vessels is large with the fleet relatively young having an average age about 7 years. Merely 3.5% of the Capesize fleet is over 25 years of age. The VLBC and ULBC fleets are expanding rapidly, mainly due to the Vale vessels being delivered. These vessels entering the fleet will undoubtedly have a huge negative impact on all Large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and will impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well" said DVB in its report.
Meanwhile, the room for limiting supply through more scrapping activity has been steadily getting smaller and smaller. Scrapping was moderate in 2009 with 256 vessels equating to 10.9 million dwt scrapped, after negligible scrapping during 2007 and 2008. In 2010, scrapping slowed down again as the markets improved slightly. Only 121 vessels amounting to 5.3 million dwt were sold for demolition. Since the start of 2011, scrapping activity has picked up significantly, with 385 vessels totalling 23.3 million dwt were sent to the breakers. In 2012, a further 406 vessels of 25.9 million dwt had already been decommissioned and broken apart, a couple of months before the year ended, meaning that a new record had been set. While until 2010, scrapping was mainly concentrated in the Handysize Sub-Sector, scrapping has been more uniform across Sub-Sectors since 2011. "With market fundamentals remaining weak due to demand-supply imbalance, high rate of scrapping is required to offset the deliveries seen in the past four years as well as the current orderbook" DVB concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
Wednesday, 01 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 23.14 PER CENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,997,729 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 29 April 2013, Newca ...
Tuesday, 30 April 13
KATINGAN RIA THERMAL COAL TO START PRODUCTION FROM EARLY 2014
COALspot.com - Realm Resources Ltd. (ASX: RRP) has announced the completion of the Feasibility Study for its 51% owned Katingan Ria thermal co ...
Monday, 29 April 13
FIRST TRADES OF SGX API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com - The SGX API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap went live for clearing on SGX-DC today with a total volume of 25,000 metric tonnes (25 lots). ...
Sunday, 28 April 13
SUB BIT INDONESIA COAL & CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average May 2013 delivery has gained 0.34 percent and CFR South China coal shipment gai ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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